| | | | Tuesday, July 25, 2023 | | The most important information we're ever going to get out of training camp will be about injuries. There will be countless barrels of digital ink spilled about this player or that player dominating in practice, or about which surprise player is playing with the No. 1 offense, and that all matters to a certain extent, but anyone who drafted Courtland Sutton based on camp hype last year surely knows how easy it is to overrate that stuff. | | But, especially at the start of camp, the information you should be paying the closest attention to revolves around injuries. With every team's full rosters set to report today, we're going to start to get a lot of reports about injuries in the coming days, and hopefully, most of it will be good news, like when we learned that Jimmy Garoppolo passed his physical after offseason foot surgery. | | But we'll surely learn some bad news in the wake of reporting day. Every player has to pass a physical to be cleared for training camp, and we already know Breece Hall will open camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list as he continues to work his way back from a torn ACL. We're still hoping he'll be cleared well in advance of Week 1, but right now, we simply don't know when he'll be available, and he certainly won't be the only player that is true of. | | | | And then, of course, there are the early-camp injuries. Studies indicate that the first couple of weeks of training camp are a period when we should expect injuries to spike, with another spike coming during the first round of preseason action. The reasons for that are pretty obvious: Even a relatively intense offseason workout program is probably less intense than multiple-hour practice sessions, especially when players are competing with and against one another. You can't replicate the intensity of practices during the offseason, just like you can't replicate the intensity of games during practice. | | Just Monday, we saw Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney suffer a setback with an offseason knee procedure, an injury that is going to keep him out of the start of training camp. According to ESPN, it isn't expected to impact his availability for Week 1 of the regular season, but given Toney's injury track record, it's an inauspicious start. I've been opposed to Toney's price – four rounds ahead of Skyy Moore in NFC Drafts to date ! – but this should help fix that. He's a fine dart throw but isn't someone you can go into the season relying on at this point. | | There will be more injuries in the coming days and weeks, and this newsletter will keep you up to date on everything. But today's newsletter isn't necessarily about the specifics of training camp – not yet. Today's newsletter is about making sure you're prepared for the deluge of news we're about to get. Jamey Eisenberg wrote an excellent piece Monday highlighting 10 things you need to keep an eye on during training camp, and that's what we're going to focus on today. | | The rest of the week, we're going to do another round of sleepers, breakouts, and bust picks from the whole FFT team, and you can prep for that by looking through Jamey's picks for the best deep sleeper for each NFC team and each AFC team | | But for now, here's what you'll need to track during training camp: | | | | 1. Injuries, Injuries, Injuries | | Breece Hall is one key one we're watching along with Javonte Williams, also working his way back from a torn ACL, but other names like J.K. Dobbins, Saints rookie Kendre Miller, and Rashod Bateman (foot) enter camp with question marks. | | But, of course, it's not just about the guys who are entering camp with injuries: There will also be plenty of new injuries to worry about along the way. There are usually a few significant injuries early on in camp and then during the preseason schedule, which is one reason why it makes sense to delay your drafts as long as possible. My suggestion: Labor Day weekend, just before the start of the season, and after the preseason schedule is done. | | | | 2. Old faces in new places | | How Aaron Rodgers fits in with the Jets will likely be the most covered topic in the game this summer, and we'll get plenty of behind-the-scenes looks at that when HBO's Hard Knocks begins airing Aug. 8 . It's an enticing story, with a former MVP hoping for a bounce-back season with a young, up-and-coming Jets team, but it also matters quite a bit for Fantasy because how Rodgers plays will impact the breakout odds of Garrett Wilson in particular, and he's one of the key players for Fantasy this season. | | We'll talk a bit more about the new quarterbacks shortly, but camp will be our first opportunity to see how Miles Sanders, David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, and Rashaad Penny, among others, will fare in their new homes. I'll be paying close attention to Sanders' usage in the passing game during camp, because I think that's the key to unlocking his upside; he could be a top-12 RB if he catches 45 passes. And the Eagles backfield will certainly be worth watching, too – Swift and Penny have plenty of talent, but also plenty of injury risk, and whichever one opens the season as the lead back could be a fringe RB1 for as long as they last. Or, it'll be a confusing, impossible-to-predict mess we'll want to stay away from. | | 3. Rookie watch | | I feel like I haven't spent much time writing about Bijan Robinson in this newsletter so far, and it's because I almost don't have anything to say. He's an elite prospect, who was taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft, and landed on a team that is going to run the ball a ton. The only real question is how much of a passing game role he has – he has a legit, three-down skill set, but will the Falcons use him much in the passing game? The answer to that question might determine whether he's RB8 or RB1 this season. | | Jahmyr Gibbs' role might be more interesting because it's another great landing spot in Detroit but with more questions about usage. Is he going to be the lead back? Split duties with David Montgomery? Or is he more of a passing downs weapon, while Montgomery handles much of the early-down work? Gibbs should be pretty good either way, but the range is a lot wider here – I could see an RB5 outcome, or I could see him being more of a fringe starter. | | The other key question here is whether Anthony Richardson locks up the starting job for the Colts right away, or if it's a real competition. Gardner Minshew is a very good backup, and the Colts might opt for a steadier hand. Richardson has tons of Fantasy potential as one of the best athletes we've ever seen at the position, but that'll only matter if he gets on the field; and whether he's starting will play a big role in how we view Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, too. | | 4. New QBs | | As many as nine teams could have new quarterbacks in Week 1, and while some, like Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo, shouldn't change how their offenses operate too much, others could totally reshape how we view their teams. | | One to watch will be Baker Mayfield in Tampa. He's the presumed starter following Tom Brady's retirement, and while he's turned into something of a punchline at this point in his career, there are some real stakes here. Everyone is pretty much expecting him to be a disaster and for this Buccaneers team to be one of the worst in the league. But Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still a heck of a duo to build a passing attack around, and if Mayfield is even average and the Buccaneers remain a relatively pass-heavy team, Godwin (WR28) and Evans (WR33) could be some of the best values in Fantasy this season. | | 5. Backfield competitions | | Miami's backfield feels wide open after the decision to draft De'Von Achane, and I think there's a decent chance his speed and explosiveness make him the runaway leader by the end of camp. That's one to keep an eye on, though I also worry that there might not be a ton of upside here even if he does become the lead back – the Dolphins didn't throw to their backs much last season, and Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson will likely still have roles even if Achane becomes the top guy. He's a buy for now with all this ambiguity, but if he starts to get hype in camp and pushes closer to the top-30 at the position in drafts, it might turn into a fade. | | That's an important lesson, actually: Ambiguity is a good thing when it comes to value. Sometimes, teams really run with backfield committees all season, but as long as a perceived committee keeps prices down, it's fine to take a bit at the apple, because the player you draft could be one injury away from being a must-start player. I'd add the Eagles and Bears to the list of ambiguous backfields where it makes sense to target the late-round options like Penny, Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert, or Roschon Johnson, just in case something happens to push them into legitimate roles. | | 6. Holdout questions | | Primarily, we're talking about a few running backs here. Specifically, Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs, and as long as they report to camp at some point, I won't be too concerned. The CBA really disincentives players from holding out for too long, so I think the chance of either missing actual regular season action is pretty slim. | | The bigger concern is more about readiness to play. If Jacobs or Taylor doesn't report until, say, a week before the season starts, they'll effectively be entering that high-injury risk part of training camp at the time when everyone else is preparing for Week 1. The potential for a slow start is real, and while both are talented enough to overcome it, any kind of minor, lingering injury could lead to real issues down the road. I'm not worried … yet. At least Saquon Barkley is reporting after agreeing to a restructured deal for 2022 Tuesday morning. | | 7. Remaining free agents | | The biggest names still out there are the likes of Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt, all of whom could still land somewhere with a significant role. Fournette worked out with the Patriots last week, and Cook has been linked there as well, which would be bad news for Rhamondre Stevenson, whose appeal is based at least in part on a projected three-down role without much competition. | | The Dolphins also seem like a potential landing spot for COok, while a Dallas reunion would make some sense for Elliott, and would dampen the enthusiasm for Tony Pollard some. He'd probably still be a fringe RB1, but not a fringe first-rounder. | | 8&9. New head coaches and new offensive coordinators | | We'll group these two together, because ultimately, we're looking to see what kind of impact the coaches have on their offense, primarily. The problem is, until we actually see these teams in action, it's almost impossible to know what kind of impact they will actually make. I remember a few years back in camp, Matt Canada's offense was getting a ton of positive praise in Pittsburgh; now, he's widely viewed as maybe the biggest thing holding that offense back. Until we see these teams in action, it's hard to know what kind of impact new coaches are going to have, and whatever impacts we can project have mostly already been baked in. | | 10. Bounce-back candidates to watch | | Deshaun Watson is going to be a key one to keep an eye on during camp because the gap between how he played in 2022 and how he had played before that was about a mile wide. Being away from the game for almost two years will do that, but the question is whether that was just rust, or if it was a new baseline level we should expect from Watson. | | Jamey brings up a very good one to keep an eye on as well: Kyler Murray. Murray is working his way back from a torn ACL, and it's not at all clear what kind of timetable he's dealing with yet. We should get some clarity soon, but it's possible he could be ready for Week 1 in an absolute best-case scenario; missing a few weeks of the regular season feels like a more realistic outcome. Either way, Murray should probably still need some time to get back to full speed, but if he looks good in camp, I'll feel a lot better about my late-round dart throws on him. I'll also feel a lot better about my James Conner and Marquise Brown shares – Brown as WR34 especially could end up being one of the better values out there if Murray is ready relatively soon. He's probably my go-to WR3 or 4 right now. | | | | | | | | Fantasy Football Today Dynasty | | The Early Edge | Can't get enough fantasy football? The Fantasy Football Today Dynasty podcast will help you dominate your league with in-depth Mock Drafts, risers & fallers, deep dynasty sleepers, NFL Draft prospect profiles and more.
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