| | | | Tuesday, January 31, 2023 | | Welcome back! We're not quite ready for pitchers and catchers yet, but that doesn't mean it's too early to start getting excited about the 2023 Fantasy Baseball season ahead of us. With one more NFL game to go and March Madness still a couple of months away, now is actually the perfect time to start your Fantasy Baseball prep. | | But if you're like a lot of Fantasy Baseball players and you also play Fantasy Football, then you might have missed some of the MLB offseason player movement. No worries, I have an easy and quick solution for you to get caught up in no time -- Scott White's offseason tracker. In Scott's tracker, you'll find all of the action you need -- every notable Fantasy player who moved teams and what kind of impact that will have on their 2023 Fantasy value. | | If you already feel comfortable putting names to their new teams, it's time to talk strategy. One of my goals for this newsletter will be to get you a mock draft in every edition at least until we wrap up draft season in April. So without further ado, we'll kick things off with a 12-team Roto mock draft organized by Scott. | | | | Here were the participants: | 1) Jake Wiener, Prospects1500 (@GatorSosa)
2) Raymond Atherton (@RaymondAtherton)
3) Brant Chesser, Baseball HQ ( @BrantChesser)
4) Zach Steinhorn, Creativesports ( @zachsteinhorn)
5) Doug Kirchhofer, lucky reader who got to join in
6) Doug Roe, defending Podcast League champ
7) Phil Ponebshek, Patton & Company
8) Kayla Walz, former Podcast League participant
9) Chris Towers, CBS Sports (@CTowersCBS)
10) Scott White, CBS Sports ( @CBSScottWhite)
11) Nathan Judah, Express & Star (@NathanJudah)
12) Corey Pieper, The Heater Podcast ( @copieps) | | My key takeaways from the mock | | Aaron Judge going with the first overall pick is nothing crazy this draft season, but for a while many theorized about how important it was to grab all categories in Roto leagues when using your first-round draft capital on a hitter. My early guess is that with the rule changes for this season expected to lead to more stolen bases leaguewide, Fantasy drafters might not put as much of a premium on drafting for speed early in their drafts. I really like Jake Wiener's roster build from the No. 1 overall hole for this (Roto) format. After grabbing all of the power categories early with Judge, he attacked his pitching corps with Sandy Alcantara, Gerrit Cole and Josh Hader. On that same turn he got Hader, he found some speed and added even more runs with Starling Marte.Second base and third base are both incredibly scarce positions this season. In salary cap formats, it makes sense to pay up for the elite tier, and in snake drafts we will continue to see those players pushed up the draft board. There were five third basemen selected in the first 18 picks of this mock. It's early, but at this point I'm torn on whether or not to pay up for the position scarcity premiums. If you look at things from the Fantasy Football side, using that strategy and paying up for Travis Kelce was a league-winning move this past season. On the flip side, if you used that logic to pay up for Salvador Perez last baseball season, well then you likely didn't win your leagues. Closer prices are being driven up yet again, just like we saw last draft season. Here's what Scott had to say about the position scarcity at reliever: "That's the fourth position where new scarcities are driving up the cost, specifically in a scoring format that puts saves in high demand. The top two closers, Edwin Diaz and Emmanuel Clase , at least lasted until Round 4. In 15-team Rotisserie leagues, they're more like second-rounders. I prefer to grab a reliever from the second tier, meaning some of the last who seem positioned to get every one of their team's saves. It includes names like Raisel Iglesias, Jordan Romano, Ryan Pressly , Kenley Jansen and the one who I actually drafted in Round 7, Felix Bautista." | | For the full mock draft results and Scott's analysis, you'll find them here. | | | | For the next few weeks, Scott, Frank Stampfl and Chris Towers will be breaking out their sleepers, busts and breakouts 1.0 for the 2023 Fantasy Baseball season. Each member of the illustrious FBT squad will be tackling one sleepers, busts and breakouts per week. Our first week entailed Scott dropping his first round of sleepers, Frank delivering his first round of breakouts and Chris handling the busts. We break some of that down on Tuesday's podcast. | | These columns are filled with plenty of plays across all ADP tiers, so I'll add my favorites from each writer here and you can find all of their favorite plays in each column. | | Sleepers from Scott | | Jorge Polanco, 2B, Twins: ADP 163.3 | | "Odd-year Polanco has tended to be the best Polanco, and indeed, the 29-year-old followed up a career-best 33-homer 2021 with ... whatever happened last year. But a deeper dive into the skill indicators suggests the production shouldn't have slipped by as much as it did. His percentile ranking for both average exit velocity and max exit velocity was virtually the same as in 2021, and he actually improved his barrel rate to a career-best 10.2 percent, which is often the best shorthand metric for whether a player had a productive season." | | Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox: ADP 169.0 | | "At this time last year, Justin Verlander was the longtime ace who I thought was being unfairly dismissed coming off surgery, and well, he went on to win the AL Cy Young. But as much as I savored that discount, Sale is so far going 60 picks later in drafts. To be fair, it's been a long road back for the left-hander, whose last time pitching anywhere close to a full season was before anyone had heard of COVID-19 -- and even then, he wasn't that good. But that's also when the Red Sox discovered he needed Tommy John surgery, which earns him a pass for the uncharacteristic performance. | | "So what about since then? He returned for nine starts in 2021 and looked great, compiling a 3.16 ERA while struggling a bit with location, as is typical coming off Tommy John. The performance had so many of us geared up to draft him last season, but then a stress fracture in his ribcage sidelined him for the start of the year, and when he finally returned, he lasted only two starts before fracturing his wrist. Both injuries were freak occurrences that shouldn't raise questions about his long-term effectiveness, so I suspect the deflated cost is more a reflection of total burnout and not wanting to be played for a sucker again. Like Verlander last year, a strong spring could send Sale's cost soaring, so if you can get in before then, absolutely take advantage." | | ... And Towers starts us off with an explosion -- his top bust pick is a Fantasy darling. | | Busts from Chris | | Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals | | "Every year, seemingly, there's some young, hot-shot player who jumps way up the Fantasy Baseball draft rankings before they've really proved they're worth it. | | "In 2022, Luis Robert ended up with an Average Draft Position of 16.2 in National Fantasy Championship drafts on the strength of 68 really good games the prior year; in 2021, Bo Bichette went off the board at 24.47 on average coming off a 29-game sample; in 2020, it was Fernando Tatis who got pushed up to 17.4 based on his pretty remarkable 84-game debut in 2019. Those players all cost quite a bit, and two of the three worked out well, but none of them cost you as much as Bobby Witt Jr. is going to in 2023. | | "As of Jan. 19, there have been 241 drafts on the NFC platform, and Witt is the seventh player off the board on average, with an ADP of 7.76. And, in fairness, the sample size for Witt is quite a bit bigger to justify it – he played 150 games as a 22-year-old rookie in 2022, almost as many as the three prior examples had played combined in their collective seasons leading up to their early-round price jump. | | "But there's one other key difference between Witt in 2023 and Robert, Bichette, and Tatis the previous three seasons: They were all much, much better than him in their prior seasons. There was some justified skepticism because of the small samples involved, but all three of them had been legitimately great hitters leading up to their ascension of the rankings, especially when compared to what Witt managed as a rookie. Let's just compare their triple slash lines:" | | 2021 Robert: .338/.378/.5672019/2020 Bichette: .307/.347/.5492019 Tatis: .317/.379/.5902022 Witt: .254/.294/.428 | | Spencer Strider, SP, Braves, ADP 36.0 | | "Strider was, on a per-inning basis, perhaps one of the five best starters in baseball, and his numbers are by no means inflated by the time he spent in the bullpen. In his 20 starts, Strider allowed a .183/.252/.274 line with a massive – I mean, a truly bonkers – 38.1% strikeout rate. It feels like he's in a similar spot to Shane McClanahan a year ago, and if Strider gives us 166.1 innings of a 2.54 ERA and 0.926 WHIP, it'll be hard to argue too much even with a top-six cost among starting pitchers. But 166.1 innings would also be the most Strider has ever thrown by nearly 40, so it sure feels like taking him where he's going right now feels like you're taking him pretty near his ceiling. I don't have many doubts about the skill set, but Strider is also basically a two-pitch pitcher – he threw his changeup just 4.8% of the time last season – and it's fair to wonder how he'll hold up being asked to go six innings the entire season. Can he do it? He's talented enough, clearly. But if I'm going to take a pitcher in the first few rounds, it's going to be someone who has proven they can at least hit the 180-inning mark." | | Breakouts from Frank | | Jazz Chisolm, 2B, Marlins | | "The story of Jazz Chisholm's young career has been a lack of health. After playing just 124 games in 2021, Chisholm was limited to just 60 games last season due to a stress fracture in his back and a torn meniscus. The production when he's been on the field, however, has been stellar. Last year he hit .254 with 14 home runs and 12 steals in those 60 games. That is a 35-homer, 30-steal pace over 150 games. Sounds like a league-winner to me." | | Corey Seager, SS, Rangers | | "It's hard to know for sure but I'm willing to wager Corey Seager will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the upcoming shift restrictions. Moving forward we will see four defenders on the infield dirt with two on either side of second base. The days of the second baseman playing in short-right field are gone (for now). Seager hit .245 last season, but Statcast says he deserved a .283 batting average. It makes sense given Seager's low strikeout rate and high line-drive rate. | | "In his first season in Texas, Seager posted a career-high 33 home runs and hit the ball extremely hard, as he always does. His 91.1 MPH average exit velocity ranked in the 86th percentile. He's actually been at 91 MPH or better three years in a row. Oddly enough, Seager had just a .645 OPS on the road last season and we have no reason to believe that will stick. As he regresses on the road and in the batting average department, a big year should be on the horizon. If it all comes together, we're looking at a .280+ batting average, 30+ home runs and 180+ runs plus RBI." | | Scott's Tiers 1.0 | | Catcher Tiers | The Elite: J.T. Realmuto
The Near-Elite: Daulton Varsho, Will Smith, Salvador Perez, Adley Rutschman, Alejandro Kirk
The Next-Best Things: Willson Contreras, William Contreras, Sean Murphy
The Fallback Options: Tyler Stephenson, MJ Melendez, Travis d'Arnaud, Cal Raleigh
The Last Resorts: Yasmani Grandal, Danny Jansen, Francisco Alvarez, Logan O'Hoppe
The Leftovers: Joey Bart, Gary Sanchez, Keibert Ruiz, Carson Kelly, Christian Vazquez, Christian Bethancourt, Nick Fortes, ( Mitch Garver), (Shea Langeliers), Eric Haase, Jonah Heim, Gabriel Moreno, Bo Naylor, Endy Rodriguez, Jose Trevino, Jorge Alfaro, Elias Diaz, Yan Gomes, Austin Nola, Luis Campusano | | First Base Tiers | The Elite: Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero, Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso
The Near-Elite: Matt Olson
The Next-Best Things: Jose Abreu, Vinnie Pasquantino, Rhys Hoskins, Nate Lowe, Christian Walker, C.J. Cron, Anthony Rizzo
The Fallback Options: Josh Bell, Andrew Vaughn, Rowdy Tellez, Ty France
The Last Resorts: Jose Miranda, Jake Cronenworth, Ryan Mountcastle, Triston Casas, Miguel Vargas, Brandon Drury, Joey Meneses, Luis Arraez, Wil Myers, Seth Brown, Josh Naylor, Matt Mervis
The Leftovers: Joey Votto, Spencer Torkelson, Jared Walsh, Brandon Belt. DJ LeMahieu, Trey Mancini, Luke Voit, Wilmer Flores, Carlos Santana | | Second Base Tiers | The Elite: Jose Altuve, Marcus Semien, Ozzie Albies
The Near-Elite: Jazz Chisholm
The Next-Best Things: Tommy Edman, Andres Gimenez, Max Muncy
The Fallback Options: Ketel Marte , Jorge Polanco, Brandon Lowe, Gleyber Torres^, Vaughn Grissom^
The Last Resorts: Jake Cronenworth, Brandon Drury, Jonathan India, Brendan Rodgers, Jean Segura, Jeff McNeil, Luis Arraez, Whit Merrifield, Thairo Estrada, Josh Rojas, Jon Berti^, Trevor Story, Kolten Wong
The Leftovers: DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Gorman, Michael Massey, Bryson Stott, Christopher Morel, Gavin Lux, Luis Urias, Luis Rengifo, Luis Garcia, Jonathan Aranda, Nick Gordon, Michael Busch, Wilmer Flores, Ramon Urias, Brendan Donovan, Chris Taylor | | Third Base Tiers | The Best: Jose Ramirez
The Elite: Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Austin Riley, Bobby Witt^, Nolan Arenado
The Near-Elite: Alex Bregman†
The Next-Best Things: Gunnar Henderson, Max Muncy
The Fallback Options: Anthony Rendon, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman
The Last Resorts: Jose Miranda, Brandon Drury, Josh Jung, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Justin Turner, Josh Rojas, Jon Berti^, Patrick Wisdom, Alec Bohm, Jordan Walker, Ryan McMahon, Yandy Diaz†
The Leftovers: DJ LeMahieu, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Urias, Eduardo Escobar, Luis Rengifo, Josh Donaldson, Yoan Moncada, Brett Baty, Spencer Steer, Wilmer Flores, Ramon Urias, Brendan Donovan, Jeimer Candelario, Joey Wendle | | Shortstop Tiers | The Unmatched: Trea Turner
The Elite: Fernando Tatis, Bo Bichette, Bobby Witt^, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager†
The Near-Elite: Oneil Cruz^
The Next-Best Things: Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts, Tommy Edman, Tim Anderson, Carlos Correa, Wander Franco, Willy Adames
The Fallback Options: Jeremy Pena, Javier Baez, Ezequiel Tovar
The Last Resorts: Nico Hoerner, Amed Rosario, Jorge Mateo^, Adalberto Mondesi^, Thairo Estrada
The Leftovers: Bryson Stott, Ha-seong Kim, C.J. Abrams, Luis Urias, Oswald Peraza, Luis Garcia, Elvis Andrus, Anthony Volpe, Royce Lewis, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Brandon Crawford | | Outfield Tiers | The Unmatched: Aaron Judge, Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts, Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, (Shohei Ohtani), Kyle Tucker, Mike Trout†
The Elite: Michael Harris, Kyle Schwarber, Luis Robert^, Randy Arozarena^, Cedric Mullins^
The Near-Elite: Daulton Varsho, Starling Marte, Teoscar Hernandez, Adolis Garcia, George Springer, Eloy Jimenez, Bryan Reynolds, Corbin Carroll, Byron Buxton^, Steven Kwan†
The Next-Best Things: ( Bryce Harper), Giancarlo Stanton, Tyler O'Neill, Kris Bryant, Christian Yelich, Hunter Renfroe, Anthony Santander, Taylor Ward, Mitch Haniger, Jake McCarthy^
The Fallback Options: Andrew Vaughn, Brandon Nimmo†, Nick Castellanos, MJ Melendez, (J.D. Martinez)
The Last Resorts: Joey Meneses, Cody Bellinger, Masataka Yoshida, Oscar Gonzalez, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Riley Greene, Jeff McNeil, Bryan De La Cruz, Lars Nootbaar, Jesse Winker, Whit Merrifield, Wil Myers, Alex Verdugo, Michael Conforto, Lourdes Gurriel, Joc Pederson, Oscar Colas, Seth Brown, Jarred Kelenic, Alex Kirilloff, Michael Brantley†
The Leftovers: Jorge Soler, Charlie Blackmon, Harrison Bader, Ramon Laureano, Brandon Marsh, Jake Fraley, Tommy Pham, Joey Gallo, Christopher Morel, Lane Thomas, Marcell Ozuna, Trey Mancini, Gavin Lux, Trent Grisham, Jurickson Profar, Sal Frelick, Austin Hays, Dylan Carlson, Oswaldo Cabrera, Randal Grichuk, Kerry Carpenter, Garrett Mitchell, Andrew Benintendi, Esteury Ruiz, Will Brennan, Nick Gordon, ( Nelson Cruz), (Matt Carpenter), (Franmil Reyes), Jose Siri, Leody Taveras, Myles Straw, Manuel Margot, Mark Canha, A.J. Pollock, Austin Meadows, Andrew McCutchen, Max Kepler, Brendan Donovan, Chris Taylor, Michael Toglia, Alec Burleson, Mike Yastrzemski, Hunter Dozier, Alex Call, Avisail Garcia, Akil Baddoo | | Starting Pitcher Tiers | The Elite: Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, Sandy Alcantara, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Shane McClanahan
The Near-Elite: Brandon Woodruff, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Shane Bieber, Alek Manoah, Spencer Strider*, Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Max Fried, Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman
The Next-Best Things: Framber Valdez, Joe Musgrove, Robbie Ray, Cristian Javier, Triston McKenzie, Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Logan Gilbert, Logan Webb, Blake Snell, Kyle Wright, Lance Lynn, George Kirby, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes
The Fallback Options: Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Jesus Luzardo, Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Kodai Senga, Charlie Morton, Chris Sale, Freddy Peralta, Jeffrey Springs
The Last Resorts: Lance McCullers, Joe Ryan, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez, Jose Berrios, Lucas Giolito, Jack Flaherty, Tyler Anderson, Merrill Kelly, Miles Mikolas, Luis Garcia, Drew Rasmussen, Grayson Rodriguez, Martin Perez, Reid Detmers, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Jordan Montgomery
The Deep-Leaguers: Patrick Sandoval, Trevor Rogers, Brady Singer, Jose Urquidy, Nathan Eovaldi, Alex Cobb, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray, Cal Quantrill, Ranger Suarez, Michael Kopech, Edward Cabrera, MacKenzie Gore, Aaron Ashby, Hunter Brown*, Noah Syndergaard, Drey Jameson, Bailey Ober, Brayan Bello, Justin Steele, Braxton Garrett, Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Ross Stripling, Jose Quintana, Kenta Maeda
The Leftovers: Cody Morris, Brandon Pfaadt, DL Hall*, Adam Wainwright, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jose Suarez, Garrett Whitlock*, Eric Lauer, Zach Eflin, Ken Waldichuk, Tarik Skubal, John Means, Hayden Wesneski, Roansy Contreras, Ryne Nelson, Bailey Falter, Josiah Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Aaron Civale, Mike Clevinger, Steven Matz, Alex Wood, Kyle Bradish, Kyle Hendricks, Michael Wacha, Cole Irvin, Ryan Pepiot, Cade Cavalli, Bryce Elder, Daniel Lynch, Graham Ashcraft | | Relief Pitcher Tiers | The Elite: Edwin Diaz, Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader, Devin Williams
The Near-Elite: Raisel Iglesias, Felix Bautista, Jordan Romano, Ryan Pressly, Kenley Jansen
The Next-Best Things: Ryan Helsley, Camilo Doval
The Fallback Options: Paul Sewald , David Bednar, Daniel Bard, Clay Holmes, Alexis Diaz, Craig Kimbrel, Scott Barlow, Peter Fairbanks, Jhoan Duran
The Last Resorts: Andres Munoz, Kendall Graveman, Alex Lange, Jose Leclerc, Kyle Finnegan, Dylan Floro, Carlos Estevez, Brandon Hughes, Daniel Hudson, Zach Jackson, Joe Mantiply
The Next in Line: Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Jimmy Herget, Brad Boxberger, Jason Adam, A.J. Minter, James Karinchak, Dillon Tate, Erik Swanson, Liam Hendriks, Jonathan Hernandez, Trevor May, Tanner Scott, Kevin Ginkel, Mark Melancon, Hunter Harvey | | | | | | | | 2023 NFC Championship Gear | | 2023 AFC Championship Gear | The Philadelphia Eagles are the 2023 NFC Champions! Celebrate their advancement to Super Bowl LVII by picking up official Eagles NFC Champions gear. Shop shirts, hoodies, hats, and more here.
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