| | | | Tuesday, February 6, 2024 | | I don't want to jinx anything, but ... I genuinely think the catcher position is in better shape than it's been in my 13 seasons writing about Fantasy Baseball. | | We've spent the past few years hinting that this might be coming, but 2024 is the first time where I genuinely feel like, not only are there enough viable starting options for every team in a 12-team league, but there might actually be a surplus. At least for one-catcher leagues -- those of us still playing in two-catcher leagues will still have to dip into the "Well, I don't know about this guy ..." range of the rankings. | | But it takes a while to get there right now. Looking at the consensus rankings from the Fantasy Baseball Today team, we've got Gabriel Moreno as the No. 12 catcher in points leagues. Moreno, of course, was a consensus top-25 prospect prior to last season, and then went out and hit .284/.339/.408 with seven homers and six steals in just 111 games -- if not for a three-week absence due to a shoulder injury in July, Moreno might have gotten to double-digits in both categories, with room to grow as his playing time likely expands in 2024. | | Below him? You've got names like Logan O'Hoppe, Mitch Garver, Bo Naylor, and Jonah Heim, any one of which I'd be fine with as my No. 1 catcher this season. | | | | We went through everything you need to know about the catcher position in Monday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, as we kicked off our position previews. You can head here to watch the full episode, but in the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to be pulling from that, as well as Scott White's Catcher Strategies piece and my Catcher Preview on CBSSports.com to make sure you know what you need to tackle the position. | | And, over the next couple of weeks, this newsletter is going to be all about diving deep into each position to make sure you know the player pool in advance of your 2024 Fantasy Baseball drafts. That's going to include recapping some of the offseason's biggest moves, highlighting our rankings for each position (plus Scott's tiers!), and highlighting some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each position. | | We're starting with the suddenly not so shallow catcher position! | | | | 2024 Catcher Preview | | "Catcher is good now. That much is clear. | | The youth movement has been a success, with players like William Contreras, Yainer Diaz, Cal Raleigh and Jonah Heim growing the position's usable talent base to never-before-seen levels. And those weren't even the ones we were salivating over in the minors. | | That's right: some of the most-hyped prospects -- Francisco Alvarez, Bo Naylor, Logan O'Hoppe, Gabriel Moreno and Luis Campusano, to name a few -- haven't even fully integrated themselves yet. And while it's true that Daulton Varsho, MJ Melendez and Henry Davis have migrated to the outfield (though with the possibility of at least one of them migrating back), it's also true that the losses haven't kept up with the gains at a position traditionally bereft of offensive talent. | | So yes, it's deep now. The question is what we should do about it." | | -From Scott White's 'Catcher Strategies' column | | | | Offseason Recap | | Mitch Garver signed a two-year deal with the Mariners | | It was a pretty quiet offseason for the catcher position, as you can tell. And it looks like Garver is probably going to spend most of his time at DH, with Cal Raleigh handling the primary catcher duties and Seby Zavala backing him up. And we're perfectly fine with that -- hopefully it can keep the oft-injured Garver in the lineup, because he has significant upside if that's the case. It's a negative park shift for him, but he hit .270/.370/.500 with a 30-plus homer pace with the Twins last season, and could be a top-five catcher if he stays on the field. Playing DH should help in that regard. | | Consensus rankings | | For breakdowns of each of the top 12 and more, head here. | | Adley Rutschman, Orioles ( The Elite Tier) William Contreras, Brewers (The Near-Elite) J.T. Realmuto, PhilliesWill Smith, Dodgers Yainer Diaz, Astros Willson Contreras, Cardinals (The Next-Best Things)Salvador Perez, Royals Sean Murphy, BravesCal Raleigh, Mariners Francisco Alvarez, MetsLogan O'Hoppe, AngelsGabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks (The Fallback Options) | | We're in the midst of a changing of the guard at catcher, and it's not impossible to envision a worst-case scenario in 2024 where Realmuto and Perez fall off quicker than anticipated and the likes of Diaz, William Contreras, Alvarez, and Moreno all fail to either build on promising 2023 campaigns or take unexpected steps backward, leaving the position as shallow as it's ever been. | | But, the thing about that is, we've also got Garver, Keiber Ruiz, Bo Naylor, Jonah Heim, and others outside the top 12 as insurance -- and don't forget about Henry Davis of the Pirates, who won't open the season with catcher eligibility but should earn it relatively early in the season and brings prospect pedigree and solid athleticism to the position. | | The margin for error in two-catcher leagues is a bit thinner, especially since it tends to be used in Roto leagues, and that makes it a lot harder to stomach the subpar bats some of the lower-end options bring with them. However, while Scott, Frank, and I generally agree that there are 16-18 catchers we feel good about as our starter, there are also some guys in that lower end group we don't mind rolling the dice on, like Luis Campusano or Alejandro Kirk. | | One Sleeper at Catcher | | Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays | | We saw a must-start version of Kirk in 2022, but his disastrous 2023 has made that a distant memory for many. He still made a ton of contact in 2023, but the quality of that contact was severely diminished, with his expected batting average falling from .297 to .252. Kirk was overwhelmed by fastballs, especially at the bottom of the zone, which Kirk just harmlessly mashed into the ground for easy outs. He'll need to figure out how to either lay off those pitches or else find a way to elevate them, and you know good pitchers will challenge him until he does. It was a discouraging season for a guy who looked like a star a season and a half ago, but his price has fallen to the point where I'll still chase the upside for my No. 2 catcher. | | One Breakout at Catcher | | Francisco Alvarez, Mets | | Alvarez has already shown standout tools: 91st percentile max exit velocity, and 84th percentile barrel rate, and 79th percentile expected ISO all back up the impressive power numbers he put up. Now he has to show room for growth to become a more well-rounded hitter. As is, he's a perfectly fine low-end No. 1 catcher, but there's top-three potential here as the natural successor to Salvador Perez if he can cut his 26% strikeout rate. And there are reasons to think he might be able to do that -- his 25.7% chase rate was actually well below average, and his 81% zone-contact rate isn't so bad as to be prohibitive. Alvarez is a high-floor option, but the ceiling could make him a legitimate difference maker. | | One Bust at Catcher | | Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks | | I just don't see all that much to get excited about with Moreno, who looks like a one-category contributor to me. Maybe the second-half power breakout was real, though there's little in his overall profile to suggest he's likely to be much of a contributor there – he doesn't hit the ball especially hard, and his all-fields, ground-ball oriented approach makes him a good bet for batting average but with a ceiling on his power potential. If he hits .284 again, it might not matter, because that's enough to make you worth starting at catcher. But with a .264 xBA last season, even that isn't guaranteed. I'd rather bet on Bo Naylor's all-around game, Mitch Garver's DH bat, or Keibert Ruiz's similar profile at a cheaper cost. | | | | | | | | Super Bowl LVIII | | Pick Six | The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers punched their tickets to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas as each team hopes to hoist the Lombardi Trophy and celebrate as it rains confetti in Las Vegas at Super Bowl LVIII. Want to know how to tune in for Super Bowl 58? We've got you covered!
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