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| Wednesday, February 7, 2024 |
| As the stereotype goes, first base is the home of big, hulking, sluggers, and at least when it comes to Fantasy Baseball in 2024, the stereotype is right on the mark. |
| Looking back at 2023 and comparing the top 12 players at each position, only catchers had fewer stolen bases than first basemen. On the other hand, no position's top 12 had more home runs, runs, or RBI than first basemen did, collectively. Which makes sense. It's the position on the field that requires the least athleticism, and the first base-to-DH pipeline has been well established for decades. |
| That being said, the rule changes that led to more steals across the board last season, and first base was no exception. Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger stole 20-plus bases each, and Christian Walker , Paul Goldschmist, Spencer Steer, Bryce Harper, and Josh Naylor all chipped in double-digits. You won't find any difference makers here in steals, but there are now a handful of legitimate five-category players at first base, and when you need as many steals as we do in this new environment, every little bit helps. |
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| So, how should you approach the position? Well, Frank Stampfl, Scott White, and I broke it all down on the FBT podcast Monday night, and you can head here to watch/listen to that. And, in the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to be diving in to what you need to know about the first base position before you draft. We'll be using Scott White's First Base Strategies column and my First Base Preview on CBSSports.com as our guides, just like we did yesterday with catcher. First base is a much better position overall than catcher, of course, and no matter what part of the draft you decide to attack the position from, you're going to find productive players to choose from. |
| Here's how we're approaching it. |
| 2024 Catcher Preview |
| "Playing first base may be harder than Billy Beane let on in the film adaptation of Moneyball (tell him, Wash), but what's harder still is playing -- that's right -- any other position. Historically, then, first base has been exactly what it was to Scott Hatteberg in that movie (not to mention real life): A safety net for players whose bats are too good to discard. |
| In theory, there should be no position that outclasses it offensively, but while that used to be the case in Fantasy, the juiced ball era and resulting stolen base scarcity changed the math some years ago. Smallish middle infielders and outfielders became the hulking first baseman's peers in terms of power while still being the ones to provide all the speed. |
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| But the juiced ball era is over. The return to a more conventional home run distribution has been gradual, but noticeable, which on its own might be enough to reclaim first base as a position of studs. What's come with it, though, is a more inviting stolen base environment that led to a 40 percent increase across the league last year. While stolen bases aren't nearly as scarce, mass contributors of them are all the more essential. And once again, they're most prevalent in the middle infield and outfield. |
| So where does that leave first base? Better than it was during the juiced ball era, yes, but not quite back to its former glory. Its surplus of sluggers gives it more usable players than any other position, but since none of them are capable of delivering the massive stolen base totals made possible by the latest round of rule changes, it's a little light at the top end." |
| -From Scott White's 'First Base Strategies' column |
| Offseason Recap |
| Cody Bellinger remains unsigned, as does Joey VottoJeimer Candelario signed a three-year deal with the RedsRhys Hoskins signed a two-year deal with the Brewers Carlos Santana signed a one-year deal with the Twins |
| There's been some movement at first base, but the biggest domino has yet to fall. Bellinger is one of the toughest players to figure out how to value for Fantasy, but I've got him as a bust, because I just don't trust his quality of contact profile. I feel a bit better about that call seeing him still unsigned a week before Spring Training begins - Bellinger provides a lot of value with his defense and baserunning that isn't factored into his Fantasy value and he still can't get the contract he's looking for, which suggests to me that teams are struggling to figure out what to make of him as well. I probably won't draft Bellinger in any leagues this season. |
| I do have some interest in Hoskins, who is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training after last year's ACL tear. The downgrade from Philadelphia to Milwaukee hurts him both with the lineup and ballpark, but there's enough of a discount available in his post-175 ADP that I don't feel like there is very much risk there at all. |
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| Consensus rankings |
| For breakdowns of each of the top 12 and more, head here. |
| Freddie Freeman, DodgersMatt Olson, BravesBryce Harper, Phillies ( The First-Rounders Tier) Pete Alonso, Mets Vladimir Guerrero, Blue Jays (The Also-Elite Tier)Cody Bellinger, FAPaul Goldschmidt, Cardinals ( The Near-Elite Tier)Christian Walker, Diamondbacks Triston Casas, Red Sox Yandy Diaz, Rays Spencer Torkelson, TigersJosh Naylor, Guardians (The Next-Best Things Tier) |
| There's elite choices at first base, with Freeman probably deserving to be a half-tier above Olson and Harper for his true five-category dominance. I'm expected regression from both Olson and Freeman, but Olson's been a lot less consistent over the years, so Freeman deserves an edge there. Harper might be a surprising inclusion in that tier, given how much worse he was than those two, but you have to remember he was coming back from Tommy John surgery last year and kind of rushed back; his .299/.425/.641 line over his final 53 games (plus five homers in 13 playoff games) suggest that he just needed some time to find himself. |
| I also think there may not end up being much difference between Alonso and Olson in the end. Olson is in a considerably better lineup, and so he should have better counting stats, which gives him an edge. But in terms of batting average and home runs specifically, I expect Olson and Alonso to be very, very similar. Whether Guerrero still belongs as high as this is a fair question, given his struggles in 2023. That being said, his quality of contact metrics were the best they've been since his massive 2021, and there's plenty of room to grow from last season. |
| FBT First Base Superlatives |
| Sleepers |
| Scott: Vinnie Pasquantino Chris : Kyle ManzardoFrank: Anthony Rizzo |
| "Big opportunity for Rizzo if he's back to full health (dealt with post concussion syndrome last year). 53 games before the injury: .304 with 11 HR, .880 OPS, he got back to hitting line drives 28%, wasn't selling out for fly balls like he was in 2022." -Frank |
| Breakouts |
| Chris: Vinnie PasquantinoScott: Triston Casas Frank: Triston Casas |
| "Pasquantino's got some Nolan Arenado in his game, in that his batting average may not be as impressive as his super-low (11.6% career) strikeout rate would make you think, but his pull-heavy swing should help him tap into plenty of power even in a bad home park for it. The best-case scenario looks something like peak Anthony Rizzo without the occasional stolen base – something like a .275 average, 25-30 homers, and 190-plus RBI-plus-runs." -Chris |
| Busts |
| Scott: Paul GoldschmidtChris- Cody Bellinger Frank- Spencer Steer |
| "Part of me thinks Goldschmidt isn't worth mentioning here because the early ADP is more than reasonable for an early-round mainstay who's just a year removed from winning NL MVP and was batting .285 with an .850 OPS as late as July 26. In fact, I might even rank him higher than his ADP. Gee, I'm making a pretty good case for drafting him, aren't I? Well, here's where I'll remind you that my goal here is less about identifying draft inefficiencies and more about flagging potential land mines. And while there's still a good chance he'll be perfectly fine, I have an inkling Goldschmidt is about to blow up -- like, in a bad way." -Scott |
Favorite to draft (based on ADP) |
| Chris: Triston Casas, Josh Naylor, Bryce HarperScott: Rhys HoskinsFrank: Bryce Harper, Triston CasasCasas |
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