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| Friday, February 9, 2024 |
| If you want a good example of why you should try to avoid overreacting to the most recent year's results in Fantasy Baseball, look no further than third base. This time last year, the consensus opinion was that third base was the weakest position in Fantasy, to the point where many drafters built their strategy around grabbing one of the handful of ostensibly reliable options at the position. |
| Now? Scott White has gone from trying to draft his third baseman by the end of the second round come hell or high water to arguing it might be the position he's most willing to wait on in drafts. He wrote about that sea change in his Third Base Strategies column, and that's what we're focusing on in today's newsletter. |
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| I do want to focus on what thing Scott wrote about the third base position, because I think it's worth drilling down on for second before we go deeper at the position: "It happened so quickly that it's reasonable to be suspicious, to suspect it's all artificial -- a facelift in the truest sense." |
| What I said about third base being an example of why you don't want to overreact to the most recent year's results when drafting? Well, that still applies here! So many players at third base increased their value significantly between last year's drafts and this year's. While at least some of them are going to build on that growth -- my money is on Royce Lewis, Gunnar Henderson , and Jake Burger -- plenty of others are going to fall back to the crowd. Regression to the mean is a powerful force, and it could strike especially hard at third base. |
| We'll get into more of that with the rest of today's third base preview newsletter, and you should start with the FBT Podcast episode about it from Tuesday, where we went all the way through every player being drafted inside of the top 400 in ADP to get you started. After that, we're going to be using Scott White's Third Base Strategies column and my Third Base Preview piece on CBSSports.com as our guide for what could be another of whiplash at third base. |
| Here's what the hot corner looks like for 2024 drafts. |
| Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3BPosition Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3BPosition Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B |
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| 2024 Third Base Preview |
| "What a turnaround for this position. My goodness. |
| A year ago at this time, I was dead set on drafting a third baseman by the end of Round 2, even if it meant pulling Nolan Arenado into that range. To miss out meant to have only two more shots at quality production -- Alex Bregman and (hypothetically, at least) Gunnar Henderson -- and you'd probably have to reach for both. |
| It was the return of position scarcity after years of position equality brought about by a juiced-up baseball. And third base appeared to be the scarcest position of them all. |
| But then Henderson indeed lived up to his potential. And then Royce Lewis shifted to third base and performed beyond everyone's wildest expectations. And then Elly De La Cruz got called up and split his time between shortstop and third base. And then Spencer Steer, Josh Jung and Jake Burger happened. By the time top prospects Noelvi Marte and Junior Caminero began to integrate themselves, it was almost too much. That scarcity had become an embarassment of riches. |
| It happened so quickly that it's reasonable to be suspicous, to suspect it's all artificial -- a facelift in the truest sense. And look, it's not hard to imagine what could go wrong for any of the players who helped to reclaim the position. Lewis could get hurt again, and Marte and Caminero could struggle to acclimate. Steer and Jung are both among my bust picks for 2024, as is Ha-seong Kim , while De La Cruz is a bust pick for Chris Towers and Frank Stampfl. |
| Then again, there's also the possibility Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jeimer Candelario take a step forward. There are exciting rookies beyond just Marte and Caminero, with Michael Busch and Colt Keith both expected to start for their respective clubs. There are options, to put it simply. While last year, a miss at third base seemed like certain doom, this year it's a chance to try out someone else. |
| And so I find that, unlike last year, it's one of the positions that I'm least compelled to fill early. Its highest-end players aren't quite as high-end as at other positions, and there's upside to be found at all stages of the draft." |
| -From Scott White's 'Third Base Strategies' column |
| Offseason Recap |
| Justin Turner signed one-year deal with Blue Jays Michael Busch traded to the Cubs Tigers prospect Colt Keith signed a six-year contractJeimer Candelario signed three-year deal with Reds Eugenio Suarez traded to the Diamondbacks Matt Chapman remains unsigned |
| Well, that's where all the offseason movement has been. Turner, Candelario, and Suarez are all decent enough options at the position, though none of them should be your Plan A heading into the season. Suarez probably shouldn't be your Plan B either, given the significant drop-off we've seen in recent years. I think the bottom could fall out here. |
| Keith and Busch are interesting, mostly because it looks like both are guaranteed Opening Day jobs now. Busch has been on the fringes of Fantasy relevance for a few years, but mostly fell on his face when given the opportunity to play for the Dodgers. The Fantasy community seems to have been higher on him than the Dodgers were, which always makes me wary, but he's also cheap enough in drafts (288th in CBS Sports ADP) that I'm willing to make a bet on the career .293/.385/.544 hitter at Triple-A now that he's got a clear runway with the Cubs. He's a solid sleeper at the position. |
| As is Keith. He signed a six-year extension with the Tigers that bought out his arbitration years and gives the Tigers three options after that, so there's no reason for them to play any service time games this year. As long as he doesn't fall on his face in Spring Training, Keith should be in the Tigers Opening Day lineup. He's coming off a season where he hit .306/.380/.552 with 27 homers as a 21-year-old between Double-A and Triple-A, and if the power growth was real, he could hit 20-plus homers with a useful average in an improving lineup -- and that's not the ceiling with a player this young. |
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| Consensus rankings |
| For breakdowns of each of the top 12 and more, head here. |
| Jose Ramirez, Guardians ( The First-Rounders Tier) Austin Riley, Braves Rafael Devers, Red SoxGunnar Henderson, Orioles Alex Bregman, Astros (The Also-Elite Tier)Elly De La Cruz, Reds Manny Machado, PadresNolan Arenado, Cardinals Royce Lewis, TwinsHa-Seong Kim, Padres (The Near-Elite Tier) Max Muncy, Dodgers Spencer Steer, Reds (The Next-Best Things Tier) |
| This is one where the valuations do change a decent amount for H2H points vs. Roto leagues. Above are the H2H points leagues rankings and tiers, but you can move Bregman down a tier in Roto, while you can mark an argument Elly De La Cruz probably either belongs a tier up in Roto or a tier down in H2H points. Beyond Steer, by the way, that tier features Rays prospect Junior Caminero , Reds prospect Noelvi Marte, Jake Burger, and Josh Jung, with Ke'Bryan Hayes lurking in the next tier down to remind us that there is plenty of upside to be found at this position that could make my aforementioned skepticism look pretty silly. |
| FBT Third Base Superlatives |
| Sleepers |
| Scott: Noelvi Marte, RedsChris: Michael Busch, Cubs Frank: Jeimer Candelario, Reds |
| "Candelario just enjoyed a breakout season, posting career-highs in home runs (22), RBI (70) and steals (8). His .807 OPS was his highest across five non-shortened seasons. Candelario finished as a top-150 player yet his ADP is currently outside the top-200 picks. It's even more baffling when you consider he signed with the Cincinnati Reds this offseason. According to Statcast park factors, Great American Ballpark is the third-best for overall offense and the best (by far) for home runs. As Scott White pointed out in his Sleepers 1.0, look at what Great American Ballpark did for Nick Castellanos when he was there. Another underrated aspect of Candelario's game is the speed. While he's not the most fleet of foot, Candelario swiped eight bases last season, likely taking advantage of the new rules. He's joining a Reds team that led baseball with 190 steals as a team. Next closest was the Diamondbacks with 166! Given the Reds' aggressiveness, I like Candelario's chances of at least matching his eight steals from last year, perhaps even exceeding them. Lastly, you might have concerns over playing time for Reds hitters this year. They're loaded with talent, especially in the infield. I don't worry about it much with Candelario because money talks. On paper, the team didn't really need Candelario but they still opted to give him $45 million over the next three years. While his ADP is on the rise since joining the Reds, it likely won't rise to the point it should. Candelario is a player you should target as a corner infielder or a fallback option at either first or third base." -Frank |
| Breakouts |
| Chris: Royce Lewis, TwinsScott: Ke'Bryan Hayes, PiratesFrank: Jake Burger, Marlins |
| "In Lewis' case, I'm not even sure he needs to "break out." He just needs to stay healthy. All he's done at the major-league level is crush the ball, with a .307/.364/.549 line and a 39-homer, 14-steal pace over 162 games - and that's not even accounting for his four-homer-in-six-games postseason run that already has his place in Twins lore locked up. It's even more impressive when you consider how much time Lewis has missed in his career - he didn't log a single official plate appearance in 2020 or 2021, due to the pandemic and then injuries, and his MLB debut was disrupted after just 12 games in 2022 due to a torn ACL, the second of his career. This is another one where the underlying data suggests his top-line numbers may not be sustainable, but they also suggest he's already a very good hitter without any need for improvement. And, of course, given his lack of experience and his pedigree (Lewis is a former No. 1 overall pick), I'm inclined to bet on the underlying numbers improving as much as the surface-level numbers might slip. Lewis just has the look of a capital-G Great hitter, and that's one I don't want to bet against." -Chris |
| Busts |
| Scott: Isaac Paredes, Rays Chris - Elly De La Cruz, ChrisFrank- Royce Lewis, Twins |
| "One telltale sign of a bust candidate is a player who relies on a single trick to make him everything he is. Joe Ryan is one such example, but Paredes is another. The basis of his appeal is his power production -- he hit 31 homers and drove in 98 runs last year -- but his profile isn't that of a slugger at all. A quick look at his Statcast page will reveal nothing but icy blue, his max exit velocity ranking in the 33rd percentile, his average exit velocity in the 13th percentile and his hard-hit rate in the 6th percentile. His .488 slugging percentage was 119 points higher than his .369 xSLG, which was the second-biggest gap among all hitters." -Scott |
Favorite to draft (based on ADP) |
| Chris: Royce Lewis, Twins; Ke'Bryan Hayes, Pirates; Max Muncy, DodgersScott: Manny Machado, PadresFrank: Jake Burger, Marlins |
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