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| Wednesday, February 12, 2025 |
| 43 days until Opening Day ... |
| We're so close to baseball being back. Pitchers and catchers for most of the league are reporting today and tomorrow, and full squad workouts are going to begin Friday for the Cubs, with the rest of the league following in the days after. And next Thursday, the Cubs and Dodgers will be kicking off Spring Training action. |
| And then we're into it, and we'll have baseball games to watch and (over)react to almost every day until October. We here at Fantasy Baseball Today HQ have been up to our eyeballs in all things baseball since last season ended, but with the Super Bowl receding in the rearview mirror and Spring Training coming up on the horizon, it's time for everyone else to catch up. |
| And that's the point of this whole Position Previews series, which moves on to the outfield today, and wraps up with Starting Pitcher later in the week. If you've been distracted and missed it, here's everything you need to catch up on the other five positions we've covered over the past few weeks: |
| Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SSPosition Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS Position Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP |
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| As for outfield, it's in a very good place relative to where things were this time a year ago. If you can remember all the way back then, the overwhelming narrative around the OF position was about how weak it was. That was true for three-outfielder leagues, but it felt especially true for those deeper five-outfielder leagues, where there were maybe 15 true stars, and then a bunch of specialists or lottery tickets. |
| But a funny thing happened in 2024: A bunch of those lottery tickets hit. Jarren Duran, Jackson Chourio, and Jackson Merrill looked like future first-rounders tries as full-time players, and Wyatt Langford and James Wood showed enough as rookies to justify top-70 picks this time around; Brenton Doyle and Lawrence Butler emerged from relative obscurity to look like two of the more exciting five-category players at any position, too. And we've got blue-chip prospects like Dylan Crews and Jasson Dominguez for 2025 who will hopefully help the position's revitalization continue apace. |
| Of course, a lot of the newfound depth at the position is build on somewhat shaky ground, it's worth saying. Those names above will have to prove they aren't one-year wonders, of course, while we're extending the benefit of the doubt to Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuna, and Julio Rodriguez that their 2024 struggles were just a bump in the road. That might be the right decision, but it's worth pointing out that, it wouldn't take that much going wrong for this position to look pretty weak again, and I wouldn't take the relative strength as a sign that you should target other positions early, knowing that you'll have studs to target in the middle rounds at outfield to make up for it. |
| It might work out, but it's not necessarily the bet I'm making in my drafts. On Tuesday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, we kicked off our Outfield Preview with Part One, and you can head here to watch Frank Stampfl, Scott White, and I break down the top 20 players at the position and more -- and we'll have Part Two out today to finish up everything else you need to know about. In the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to be diving into Scott White's Outfield Strategies piece and my Shortstop preview piece to make sure you know what you need to tackle the position. |
| Let's take a closer look: |
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| 2025 Outfield Preview |
| "At this time a year ago, outfield was thought to be the scarcest position of all, which was doubly frustrating because it's also the one offensive position where, across all formats, multiple players are required. In a best-case scenario, it's three, but oftentimes, it's as many as five. |
| And so there was pressure to gobble up as many outfielders as you could stand early in drafts, recognizing that if you weren't deliberate about it, you'd be in for a nightmare scenario, particularly in those five-outfielder formats. |
| Now? It's not so bad. Between emerging studs like Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill and unexpected breakouts like Jarren Duran, Brenton Doyle, Lawrence Butler, and Jurickson Profar, there's clearly enough talent to go around in a three-outfielder league. Even in a five-outfielder league, it's passable." |
| -From Scott White's 'Outfield Strategies' column |
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| Offseason Recap |
| Juan Soto signed with the MetsKyler Tucker traded to the Cubs Cody Bellinger traded to the Yankees Jurickson Profar signs with the BravesAnthony Santander signed with the Blue Jays Tyler O'Neill signed with the Orioles Michael Conforto signed with the Dodgers |
| Soto was the big story of the offseason, and it's an overall park downgrade that makes a repeat of his career-best power performance in 2024 unlikely. He's still an elite Fantasy option, but the hope is he can make up for whatever he might lose in homers with a higher batting average. If not, I'm not sure he's a significantly better option than Yordan Alvarez, who comes at a near-round discount. |
| Bellinger is probably the biggest winner of this group, going from a neutral park for left-handed power to a very good one in Yankee Stadium. That might not have mattered all that much when Bellinger was a hulking slugger in his youth, but these days, he needs every bit of that short porch in right field to even have a chance at 30 homers. This was nearly a best-case scenario for Bellinger's flagging skill set, and a 25-15 season isn't out of the question. |
| Injuries to know |
| Ronald Acuna (knee surgery) – Unlikely for Opening DayChristian Yelich (back surgery) – Expected to be ready for Opening Day, but could start Spring Training late Mike Trout (knee surgery) – Expected to be ready for Opening DayEvan Carter (back surgery) – Expected to be ready for Opening Day Jung Hoo Lee (shoulder surgery) – Expected to be ready for Opening Day |
| Acuna's status isn't just the biggest question for the outfield position in 2025, it's one of the biggest questions in Fantasy Baseball right now. We know he has No. 1 overall player upside – Acuna, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts are the only active players to finish as the No. 1 overall player more than once, and those guys haven't done it since 2018 at the most recent – and if he misses, let's say, three weeks to open the season and then plays at 90% of his 2023 level, he's a league-winning pick in the third round. But if he missed a month and a half (which sounds like it might happen) and then plays like he did in 2024, it's going to be pretty tough to justify even a fourth-round pick. |
| Yelich's status will also be worth watching early in Spring Training. He played at a near-MPV level last season before ultimately undergoing surgery to hopefully help fix an issue that has lingered for years. Maybe it will, and he'll go on to have several productive seasons into his mid-30s. But betting on a 33-year-old coming off back surgery is an incredibly risky one to make, and it's one I am increasingly worried won't pay off. |
| Consensus rankings |
| For breakdowns of each of the top 12 and more, head here. |
| Aaron JudgeJuan SotoKyle TuckerMookie Betts Corbin CarrollFernando TatisJulio RodriguezYordan Alvarez (The First-Rounders Tier)Jarren Duran Jackson ChourioJackson MerrillRonald AcunaJazz Chisholm (The Also-Elite Tier)James WoodChristian Yelich (The Near-Elite Tier) Oneil CruzTeoscar Hernandez Michael Harris Wyatt LangfordAnthony SantanderMike TroutLuis RobertLawrence Butler Bryan Reynolds (The Next-Best Things Tier) |
| One Sleeper at Outfield |
| Roman Anthony, Red Sox |
| The thing about Anthony is, he's either going to go undrafted in most leagues or he's going to force his way onto the Red Sox roster this spring and be a top-150 pick. He's only played 35 games at Triple-A, but he more than held his own, hitting .344/.463/.519 while showcasing a terrific approach at the plate and excellent quality-of-contact metrics. As a 20-year-old. The Red Sox have a full outfield right now … kind of – Ceddanne Rafaela can play either middle infield spot, and the Red Sox would still seemingly love to move Masataka Yoshida, which would free up the DH spot, too. Which is to say, if Anthony forces their hand this spring, there could be a path for him. With his combination of plus power and excellent plate discipline at such a young age, I think Anthony could have superstar upside. |
| One Breakout at Outfield |
| Jackson Chourio, Brewers |
| The easiest call in the world, because the breakout already happened. Chourio had an OPS below .600 as late as June 7, but he was a top-20 player in Fantasy from that point on, hitting .306/.363/.525 with a 26-homer, 26-steal pace. Just go do that for a full season and we're talking about a first-rounder. And the thing is, that's not the ceiling – of course, it isn't the ceiling for a guy who won't even turn 21 until a few weeks into Spring Training of his second season! The most obvious place for Chourio to break out is on the bases – he somehow only stole one more base than Christian Yeliuch despite playing more than twice as many games. Chourio is a premium athlete who stole 44 bases in 128 games in the minors in 2023, and there's no real reason he couldn't get to 40 on an aggressive team like the Brewers. There's a non-zero chance we're talking about Chourio as a top-three pick this time next year. |
| One Bust at Outfield |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs |
| Here's something scary about Crow-Armstrong: He's one of the very few players who actually ranked lower than Mark Vientos in a lot of plate discipline metrics, and he obviously doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as Vientos. What he does have going for him is arguably best-in-baseball speed and centerfield defense, which should mostly insulate him from playing time risk, which is nice. But Crow-Armstrong seems likely to be buried in the bottom of the Cubs lineup, and might just be a one-category contributor in 2025. In an era where steals are as plentiful as they are right now, you're better off waiting for Victor Robles (ADP: 196) or Cedric Mullins (219.2) for your steals. |
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