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| Tuesday, February 18, 2025 |
| 38 days until Opening Day ... |
| If you just missed a whole season of baseball and came back to things this spring, you might need to take some time to reacquaint yourself with the player pool at most of the hitter positions, but it probably wouldn't take too long. |
| Sure, you'd have some questions. |
| "Why does everyone hate Bo Bichette all of a sudden?" |
| "Why are we excited about Willson Contreras again?" |
| "Wait, who the heck is Lawrence Butler, and why is he a fifth-round pick?" |
| Fair questions, all. But, on the whole, the hitter positions tend to look, more or less, the same from one year to the next. There are shifts, but nothing seismic, typically. |
| And then there's the SP position. Which is just … it's chaos. Last year's No. 1 pitcher is going in the 11th round this season. Last year's No. 4 pitcher barely has an ADP inside of the top 100 this season. Among the first 10 starting pitchers off the board in last year's draft, five – Spencer Strider, Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen, and Tyler Glasnow – are going off the board at least five rounds later this spring. Among the 25 pitchers in the top 100 in ADP overall last year, 13 of them are going at least 28 picks later than they did on average; by comparison, only three have seen their average price rise by more than 20 picks, and only seven have seen their price rise at all. |
| Position Strategies: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SSPosition Previews: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS Position Tiers: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP |
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| Pitcher is defined by attrition, and it feels like that's becoming more true with each year. I wrote an in-depth article earlier this offseason looking into the return on investment for starting pitchers, and the results were illuminating. Early-round pitchers tend to be pretty decent bets to make an impact for your Fantasy team – in the first round, they return at least $20 in value around half the time, but by the third round, it's only around 25% of the time. |
| Once you get to the fourth-round range in drafts, it's basically a crap shoot – the average fourth-round pitcher drafted between 2015 and 2024 returned around $5 in value, while the average in the ninth and 10th rounds is right around $3. That's right, historically, a fourth-round pitcher is barely a better bet than a 10th-rounder. I've taken to referring to this as the SP Dead Zone, and this research is heavily impacting how I approach the position in my drafts. |
| But here's the thing: I'm a little worried about how much we can even draw from those conclusions. Because, 10 years ago, the early-round pitchers were multi-year superstars like Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer , guys who we knew could handle the volume of an ace pitcher over multiple years while also pitching like an ace. That's a big deal, and it isn't really something we can say about the early-round pitching options in 2025. |
| Okay, that's not entirely fair to Zack Wheeler, who hasn't missed more than six starts in a season since 2017 and has a 3.16 ERA over 1,207 innings in the past seven seasons. He's the No. 3 pitcher taken in nearly every draft this season, behind these two, with these track records: |
| Paul Skenes: 133 IP with a 1.96 ERA in 2024; 122.2 IP at LSU in 2023Tarik Skubal: 192 IP with a 2.39 ERA in 2024; 2.80 ERA in 80.1 IP in 2023 |
| Skenes has thrown 375.1 innings over the past three seasons combined, while Skubal has thrown 404.2 in that span; Wheeler has thrown 545, and that's not including a league-high 213.1 in 2021. Skubal and Skenes are incredible pitchers, but they're a mighty far cry from the days when Kershaw was throwing 650 innings over three-season spans and pitching his way into the first round. |
| Now, the whole pitching landscape has, of course, changed in similar ways. 180 innings is the new 200 innings, and 160 innings is the new 180. You need fewer innings than ever to compete, so even 150 innings of ace-level production can still be hugely impactful these days. But still, ask anyone who bet on Spencer Strider last year how it went betting on a guy with a short track record as the first pitcher off the board. |
| Of course, the guy I had ranked ahead of Strider last spring was Gerrit Cole, who got hurt in spring training and didn't even throw 100 innings last season. Who knows. Like I said, pitcher is defined by attrition. |
| We've spent the past several days previewing the SP position for the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, and you can check out Part One here, while Part Two is here. In the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to be diving into Scott White's Starting Pitcher Strategies piece and my Starting Pitcher preview piece to make sure you know what you need to tackle the toughest position to pin down. |
| Let's take a closer look: |
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| 2025 Starting Pitcher Preview |
| "Remember The Glob? That's the term I used to describe the talent distribution at starting pitcher a year ago: just a couple dozen difference-makers and then an indiscernible mass of mediocrity. Once you entered The Glob, there was no point in playing favorites. You could only hope you had the bulk of your pitching staff assembled already. |
| Well, I'm here to tell you The Glob is no more. It was a one-year phenomenon -- full of sound and fury, signifying nothing -- and now the pendulum has swung back the other way. It's swung back so hard, in fact, that we're basically working with the reciprocal now -- a Good Glob, you might even say. |
| Loosely, I've described it as 15-50 in my rankings. It's actually more like 15-47, and by the time you read this, injuries may have reduced the range further. But the point is that it's again a large, indistinguishable mass, only this time comprised of pitchers that are, you know, talented. Not all of them will pan out, of course -- such is the nature of pitching -- but from where things stand now, their outlooks are so similar that I hesitate even to rank them. What looks right to me one day looks upside-down to me the next. Truth is I only do it because they make me." |
| -From Scott White's 'Starting Pitcher Strategies' column. |
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| Offseason Recap |
| Corbin Burnes signed with the Diamondbacks Blake Snell signed with the Dodgers Max Fried signed with the YankeesGarrett Crochet traded to the Red SoxRoki Sasaki signed with the Dodgers Jack Flaherty signed with the Tigers Sean Manaea signed with the MetsNathan Eovaldi signed with the RangersMax Scherzer signed with the Blue JaysShane Bieber signed with the Guardians Luis Severino signed with the Athletics Yusei Kikuchi signed with the AngelsWalker Buehler signed with the Red Sox Nick Pivetta signed with the PadresJesus Luzardo traded to the Phillies Jeffrey Springs traded to the Athletics |
| How actual MLB teams react to pitchers in the marketplace should help guide how you feel about them. Burnes, Snell, and Fried all signed relatively quickly and for massive contracts, so I think it's fair to say that, if the people who have hundreds of millions of dollars at stake are confident that they'll be impactful, you should probably share that confidence. I believe that less for Snell than the other two, given his long history of inconsistent, low-volume pitching -- and the fact that he'll likely struggle to reach 180 innings even if he's healthy and effective all season long with the Dodgers -- but I'm less scared off of him this offseason than I was last offseason. |
| Of course, that means that the tepid reception Flaherty got on the market has to matter to us, right? The fact that he returned to the Tigers was a nice positive because they helped turn his career around in the first half of last season. But the fact that he signed for roughly the same amount of money as Frankie Montas seems like a pretty big red flag. The Yankees were scared off of trading for Flaherty at last year's deadline due to concerns about his back, and health concerns likely played a role in his cold market. I'm not burying Flaherty in my rankings, but I'm a little less enthusiastic about him when he falls. |
| Injuries to know |
| Shane McClanahan (elbow) – Opening Day starter. Sandy Alcantara (elbow) – Opening Day starter. Spencer Strider (elbow) – Likely to miss the start of the season, but could be back in April.Shohei Ohtani (elbow) – Likely to miss the start of the season, and won't pitch in the spring. Could be back in May, though whether he'll pitch in a game before his debut is in question. Tyler Glasnow (elbow) – Ended last season on IL, but has not had any issues this offseason. Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) – Looks like he'll be ready to pitch this spring, though what to actually expect from him remains totally up in the air. Eury Perez (elbow) – Likely out until June at the earliest Shane Bieber (elbow) – Likely to pitch in the first half Dustin May (elbow, esophagus) – May underwent surgery to repair a flexor tendon in his elbow in July of 2023 but had his hoped-for return derailed by a torn esophagus. Ouch. He could be ready for Opening Day, though he might need an injury to have a rotation spot. Lucas Giolito (elbow) – Expected to be ready for Opening DayAlex Cobb (hip) – Questionable for Opening DayClayton Kershaw (toe/knee) – Unlikely to pitch in the first couple months of the season. Frankie Montas (lat) – Likely to miss at least the first couple of weeks, if not the first month, of the regular season |
| And this isn't even counting names like Joe Musgrove, Kyle Bradish, John Means, Drew Thorpe, Lance McCullers, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Christian Scott, or Patrick Sandoval , all of whom are recovering from injuries and either will miss the entire season or likely still have several months of rehab left before they'll be able to return. And, of course, there will be a handful of injuries in the next few weeks as pitchers ramp up before the start of Spring Training. |
| And, of course, there's the little fact that just because someone is past an injury and healthy enough to pitch, that doesn't necessarily mean they will be the same guy they were before the injury. It's possible that McClanahan, Strider, Alcantara, and Ohtani will all just pitch like they did before going under the knife, but history suggests at least one of them is going to be a total non-factor in Fantasy this year, and at least one more will likely disappoint. |
| Consensus rankings |
| For breakdowns of each of the top 24 and more, head here. |
| Tarik SkubalZack WheelerPaul Skenes (The First-Rounders Tier)Corbin Burnes Chris SaleLogan Gilbert Cole Ragans Garrett CrochetDylan CeaseBlake Snell (The Also-Elite Tiers)Gerrit ColeGeorge Kirby Framber ValdezMichael King (The Near-Elite Tier) Sonny GrayJustin Steele Spencer Schwellenbach Hunter BrownZac GallenJack FlahertyGrayson Rodriguez Joe RyanKodai Senga Freddy Peralta (Start of Good Glob Tier) |
| One Sleeper at Starting Pitcher |
| Spencer Arrighetti, Astros |
| Sometimes, I think I have my finger on the pulse of the Fantasy community, and then I see something like Spencer Arrighetti's 218.5 ADP, and I feel totally out of touch. But I do think I have a possible explanation for why people aren't more excited about Arrighetti: He let a lot of players down in a big way last summer. Coming off a pair of dominant performances against the Rays and Orioles , he was a much-hyped waiver-wire target heading into a matchup against the White Sox … and he flopped, giving up four runs in 5.2 innings against them. He followed that up with 17 strikeouts in 13.2 shutout innings over his next two starts against the Orioles and Phillies … only to flop even more dramatically against the Reds . Nevermind that he followed that up with six runs in his final 20 innings or that he had a 3.31 ERA and a 29.5% strikeout rate over his final 16 starts, he burned a lot of people in his most high-profile opportunities last year, and I think some are simply holding that against him. Clearly, Arrighetti has a slimmer margin for error than you'd prefer, and his fastball command really needs to be pristine for him to dominate. But we've seen him do it before, and at this price, the downside just isn't really there in most leagues. I'll be drafting him pretty much everywhere. |
| One Breakout at Starting Pitcher |
| Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles |
| In some ways, Rodriguez has come as advertised to the majors. He has a deep arsenal, with four pitches he throws at least 15% of the time, and he can generate whiffs or weak contact with any of them, in part thanks to the massive extension he generates with his delivery. He missed some time with a lat injury last year but has shown the ability to pitch deep into games when healthy – and it's noteworthy that we don't have an elbow injury in recent years to worry about here. It sure seems like he should be better than he is, especially when he's backed up by one of the best supporting casts in baseball. I'm willing to just keep betting on him figuring it out at some point, even if I'm not exactly sure where the next step comes from. One suggestion I would have? Going back to the sweeper he threw as a rookie, which generated similar swing-and-miss numbers and significantly better results on contact as the slider he leaned on in 2024. |
| One Bust at Starting Pitcher |
| Blake Snell, Dodgers |
| Here's some useful advice for Fantasy players: Know thyself. If you can ride the Snell-coaster without getting so frustrated by the low points that you sell him at a steep discount, then he could be worth this price – as frustrating as the process is, the end results usually bring tons of strikeouts and excellent ERA numbers, and there should be plenty of wins to be found in Los Angeles. But there's always a stretch for Snell where everything seems to go wrong, both with performance. He had an ERA north of 5.00 as late as June in each of the past four seasons except 2023 (he had a 5.04 ERA on May 25 that season, naturally). And Snell is also at a pretty severe workload deficit relative to most of the other aces, having reached 130 innings just once in nine MLB seasons – and with the Dodgers almost certain to use a six-man rotation in 2025, even the 180-inning mark he hit in his two Cy Young seasons is almost certainly a long shot. There's plenty of upside here, but it might be more capped than you think in 2025. Given the obvious downside risk, I won't be taking this ride. |
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