A Bitcoin Binge

The tariff time bomb might be ticking... Today's inflation report... Bitcoin hits $123,000 – but there could be a better crypto to buy now... What's driving prices higher... 'Crypto Week'... Mailbag: Your tariff thoughts...

First up today, inflation is 'ticking up'...

Tariffs are starting to show up in the "official" data...

This morning, Uncle Sam reported the consumer price index ("CPI") data for June. This benchmark measure of prices rose by 0.3% last month and 2.7% year over year ("YOY").

So-called "core" inflation – which strips out energy and food prices – rose by 0.2% for the month and 2.9% YOY.

The data was roughly in line with Wall Street estimates, though a touch higher than some prognosticators' expectations.

Looking at the details, the report confirmed what we've heard from subscribers over the past week about the real-world price impacts of tariffs (more of your feedback is in the extended mailbag below).

Prices for apparel rose 0.4%, after seeing price decreases the prior two months. Home furnishings rose 1% and video and audio products were 1.1% higher. Auto prices, though, were down.

The better, though not exactly great, news... Generally speaking, goods inflation was offset by disinflation in services (like hotels and airline fares), as nonprofit business think tank The Conference Board pointed out today.

So, we remain on "inflation watch." As we explained yesterday, the short-term tariff inflation impacts, at least in some sectors, could just be starting.

Appropriately, it was a 'mixed' day...

This look at inflation, plus the start of earnings season – with a few major banks seeing their stocks slip – resulted in a mixed day for the major U.S. indexes.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was a little higher and hit a new record, powered by a 4% rise in Nvidia (NVDA) shares. The company said it hopes to resume deliveries of its H20 AI chip to China soon after receiving assurances of licenses from the U.S. government.

The benchmark S&P 500 Index was down 0.4%, the small-cap Russell 2000 Index lost nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down roughly 1%.

Meantime, longer-term bond yields rose. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.5% again, and the 30-year yield moved above 5%.

And in the federal-funds-futures market, expectations for interest-rate cuts eased some. The market probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates at its meeting later this month fell below 3%... and the odds of bank lending rates staying the same at its meeting in September rose to 44%, up from 37% yesterday.

Elsewhere, bitcoin is hitting new highs again...

The world's largest cryptocurrency has continued its strong year. While it was down some today, bitcoin hit a fresh all-time high of $123,000 yesterday, bringing its total return for the year to around 25%.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") and institutional investors are a huge part of the recent surge...

Over the final two Wall Street trading days last week, bitcoin ETFs saw a combined $2.2 billion in inflows. Both Thursday ($917 million) and Friday ($1.3 billion) represented the largest single day for inflows since May.

In an interview with CNBC, Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, a digital-asset research firm, said that institutional investors have bought $15 billion in bitcoin ETFs in the past six to eight weeks.

In Friday's weekly Crypto Capital video update, our colleague Eric Wade explained that the demand from ETFs isn't the only thing pushing prices higher. As Eric wrote to his subscribers...

Most of this rally is thanks to the confluence of low liquidity – there is not much bitcoin out there to be bought – and insatiable demand from ETFs and bitcoin treasury companies.

Eric explained that there are only 450 bitcoin mined every day. At today's prices, that means about $3 billion in bitcoin supply has been "created" over the past eight weeks.

But, based on 10x Research's data, institutional investors have bought roughly five times more bitcoin than the new supply. As long as that dynamic remains, there will be a steady stream of money flowing into bitcoin – likely pushing the price even higher in the long term.

The rally could soon extend beyond bitcoin...

While bitcoin is up nearly 30% this year, Ethereum (the second-largest crypto) is still down around 10% so far in 2025. And it's 35% below its all-time high from 2021. That might not be the case for long, though.

More from Eric...

In past crypto cycles, investors moving from bitcoin to Ethereum has signaled a full-blown altcoin season coming. That's when you often see the biggest gains.

In his weekly update, Eric dove into a 14-page research report from Fidelity Investments to view Ethereum through the eyes of institutional investors. In short, the Ethereum network is seeing more transactions than ever. And Eric believes it's only a matter of time before the institutional crowd buys up Ethereum. That could push Ethereum prices higher.

Crypto Capital subscribers and Alliance members can watch Eric's full video here.

Meanwhile, Eric is urging everyone to buy one crypto right now. He calls it his "No. 1 Crypto Play for 2025." No, it's not bitcoin – although he wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin soared 10X higher from today's prices in the coming years. But Eric believes his "No. 1 Crypto Play" could capture similar gains to bitcoin in a fraction of the time.

During one period, for example, Eric's virtually unknown crypto approach could have made you 10X your money in just four months. The best part is – unlike bitcoin, which is trading around $120,000 – you can get started right now for less than 25 cents.

If you're interested in gaining access to Eric's research, click here to learn more in this short presentation.

Congress could deliver another crypto catalyst in the next few days...

This week, the House of Representatives is deliberating on several pro-crypto bills. In general, the bills look to provide a clearer regulatory landscape for the crypto industry. That includes a framework for stablecoins and establishing a clear digital-currency policy at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The House has decided to call it "Crypto Week." So has President Donald Trump. He posted on Truth Social earlier today...

Congress is expected to vote on the crypto bills on Wednesday and Thursday, though that might be in question after enough House Republicans voted today against a procedural vote (which Trump was referring to) that would have advanced the Senate-passed stablecoin bill.

The 13 House Republicans want that bill to be packaged with market structure legislation and another bill that would ban a central bank digital currency.

It makes sense to expect a little volatility in the crypto markets around these developments. But long-term investors – like the institutions that are buying bitcoin hand over fist – aren't going to change their strategy over a few headlines.

New 52-week highs (as of 7/14/25): Valterra Platinum (ANGPY), Ansys (ANSS), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), GE Vernova (GEV), Houlihan Lokey (HLI), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY), Newmont (NEM), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Sprott (SII), Skeena Resources (SKE), TransDigm (TDG), Global X Uranium Fund (URA), and Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI).

In today's mailbag, more of your thoughts on tariffs, both the pros and cons... If you missed previous reports with your feedback, start here, here, here, and here... Keep your notes coming. Do you have comments, observations, or questions? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"In 2011, I was working for a company that decided to shut down the division I was in. They didn't eliminate the division but shipped all the jobs to China because it was cheaper to hire engineers there rather than employ them in the U.S. If tariffs help to end this practice so that Americans can work at reasonable paying jobs, then I'm willing to pay a little more for the products I buy and have fewer TVs in the home.

"In the 1950s, an average family could sustain itself with 1 working adult. Due to the fiat currency and outsourcing of American jobs, it is difficult for families to survive even with both adults working. Productivity has continued to increase, but relative compensation has been stagnant since 1971 – when the U.S. dollar was taken off the Bretton Woods 'Gold Standard.' I applaud President Trump for being concerned about the welfare of Americans." – Stansberry Alliance member Mike T.

"I import and wholesale seasonal products, 90% from China. The tariffs should have been applied to industries, not countries. Applying them to countries that utilize low-cost labor on certain products will never be replaced by the U.S., unless our government's plan is to lower the minimum wage back to 1940s levels. Retailers want me to absorb the tariffs, and factories are afraid to ship for fear of a tariff increase and retailer order cancelation while goods are on the water. It's simply a situation that is extremely difficult to plan for." – Subscriber Eric A.

"I was just reading the Tariff Time Bomb and will [offer] a perspective from two views, one being personal and the other business.

"Personal – I was part of a discussion of some very intellectual folks after 18 holes of golf and a drink. There were about 12 of us there. After a long discussion I looked at all of them and asked a simple question. 'Has the tariff caused any of you, or anyone you know, to have to make any change in your lifestyle'? To a man the answer was no. I am sure there are some that it may have had an adverse effect on, but I know of no one.

"Business – Mine is commercial/industrial/athletic lighting sales and design. We have had price impacts – mostly on LED chips and circuit boards as probably about 75%-80% are manufactured in China. It has made a cost impact. However, our decision was to keep gross margins the same after having to raise prices. Surprisingly, there has been very little push back. Our net has gone up because of keeping the gross margin the same on a higher sell price; 10% of $150.00 is more than 10% of $100.

"I am sure other businesses go in different directions, but I would encourage them to try – they may be surprised as to the actual effect on net." – Subscriber Rick F.

"Love you guys, but can we please knock off the tariff whining??? We have been getting screwed over on trade for way too long." – Subscriber Dennis M.

"You make a point to show how business is affected by tariffs, and the common theme is that there is no way to bring the manufacturing back to purchase materials and goods domestically. The implication is that tariffs should be relaxed or rescinded altogether.

"Here is my response: tough.

"I grew up in Michigan. I saw the auto industry and its feeder industries decimated by [the North American Free Trade Agreement]. I saw jobs go out-of-state, even out of America. I saw whole towns lose their local businesses and their tax bases. I saw people switch to juggling part-time work, two or even three jobs with no benefits. I lost my own career and ended up at K-Mart until it also closed down. This was a grinding process taking toll over the past 40 or more years. Did anyone in government care? Did the auto CEOs care? They outsourced and sustained their bottom lines while ours eroded away completely. Many like me went without any health insurance for decades...

"Tariffs are a way to end the delusion that we have enjoyed free trade, fair trade, over the last 40 years. The costs have been severe and ongoing for a hundred million of us. If companies do not want to bring their operations back to America, they should no longer pretend to be American companies and move their headquarters to China and Vietnam and Mexico (I am pointing the finger at you, Apple and Ford.) It will take time to onshore all the industries we lost, and they may be automated upon return, but the dying cities and towns in the rust belt will be better off for it when it happens.

"So, enough stories about how business is being hurt by tariffs. Tough it out and bring the jobs back. If it does not meet your approval as a free-trader, know that there really is no such thing as free trade in global competition and widespread cheating against the US. Fair trade requires the hammer of tariffs to redress wrongs that have gone on for many decades..." – Subscriber John W.

"These comments are telling me more than I could have ever expected in a single column. Well done! I especially was impressed by T.W.'s comments... Thank you for continuing to feature all of these informative and well thought out comments." – Subscriber Kathy D.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
July 15, 2025

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Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent total return from the initial recommendation.

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

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Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.

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^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.

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