| Macron dissolved parliament just a few weeks ago to call this shock election, after his party suffered a devastating defeat by the far right during the European elections, with the National Rally bringing in 31% of the vote. Although the president had reportedly been considering calling an election for months, the announcement came as a surprise even for some in his inner circle. By the end of last week, the campaign was clearly wearing on Macron, who normally keeps a cool head. On Friday, the president seemed to snap when asked by reporters about his opponents, pointing to the “arrogance” of the RN. It seems, however, that they were right to be confident. Macron knew that calling a snap election was a major risk. The far right is more popular in France than they have been in years; his approval ratings have hit record lows; and two years ago his party lost its parliamentary majority. Critics have said that the gamble has allowed Le Pen and her party to build on the momentum from the European elections – while Macron’s allies have all but said that he is playing 4D chess. The main reason that the president has given for calling this election, is that this is a moment for clarification: he was calling the public’s bluff on their decision to give so many votes to the far right in the European elections. He was hoping that, when confronted with the reality of a far-right government, the French public would go the other way. The other, more cynical, interpretation is that by allowing the National Rally to win, Macron can – as president – effectively control how they govern with the hope that people fall out of love with them before the next set of elections. Even if this is all a part of some grand plan, there is no guarantee that things will work out in Macron’s favour in 2027, in the same way they didn’t three weeks ago or last night. How the election works To understand the significance of this first round, we have to go back to French politics 101. French elections are usually held every five years – the last one was in 2022, meaning that Macron did not have to dissolve parliament for three more years. There are 577 seats in the French parliament, and to have an absolute majority a party needs to obtain 289. To elect MPs, French voters participate in a two-round simple majority system. In the first round, a candidate must win a majority of votes with the support of at least 25% of registered voters – so turnout is crucial. If a candidate wins a majority then they get the seat, but most votes go to a second round the following week. This round includes the two highest scoring candidates, plus any others who collected at least 12.5% of total registered voters. The candidate who gets the most votes wins. The results The RN’s surge is undoubtedly “historic and monumental”, Jon says, but there are caveats. Several polls last week predicted an even higher score and while Le Pen is insisting that Macron’s camp have been “practically wiped out”, there is no way to predict or extrapolate these results into a national picture yet. The polls currently suggest that the RN may not have the seats required for an absolute majority, but an alliance with a part of the centre right might tip the balance in their favour. “This outcome confirms that the French political landscape is divided into three rival blocks, with the centrists squeezed between the left and the far right,” he adds. A new future The National Rally, formerly the Front National, have undergone a significant reinvention in recent years, shedding their extremist image. For the last decade, Marine Le Pen has been moving the party away from the virulent antisemitism that defined it for so long , by expelling her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, changing the party’s name, and toning down its rhetoric to market itself as a more palatable right-wing party. The language may have shifted, but Le Pen has still kept the fundamental principle of “national priority”, a euphemistic term for a policy that would give preferential access to social housing and welfare to French citizens over non-nationals, even those who are paying taxes. The measure is incompatible with EU law and has been accused of formalising discrimination against immigrants. The presence of Jordan Bardella, the 28 year-old protege and heir apparent of Le Pen has been a boon. “He’s young and a very telegenic, a smooth performer, and has helped broaden their appeal”, says Jon. Now the RN have surged in the polls. Like in many parts of Europe, French voters are frustrated with their government over a host of issues. “It’s about a worry for the future that comes in all sorts of shapes and sizes,” Jon says. “It can be to do with immigration, unemployment, housing, or with a more intangible sense that the future is threatened”. Their increasing mainstream position in politics has also been aided by a progressive normalisation by other centre-right and right wing parties. Macron’s government incorporated a number of the RN’s hard-line positions in their immigration bill last year in a bid to stymie their rise. Instead, it has seemingly helped to normalise those positions. Part of the problem is Macron himself, who is viewed as arrogant, elitist and failing to deliver by many voters, despite the headline economic indicators that the country seems to be going in the right direction. What’s next A week of political bargaining is ahead for French politicians. The results and unusually high turnout means there will likely be a record high number of three-way contests in the second round, which will lead to extraordinary levels of “frantic horse trading” that make it exceedingly difficult to accurately predict an outcome. In the past, third parties have dropped out in areas where the RN are in the lead to avoid splitting the vote. Senior figures in the left wing NFP alliance have pledged that in any constituencies where their candidate is third and the RN are first, they would withdraw. Macron’s centrist camp has not been as generous or clear about what they plan to do in the same situation. Far-right parties are in government already in half a dozen European countries, many of whom congratulated the RN and Le Pen on their initial victory. Centrist and left-wing European parties will be watching closely and nervously at how events unfold over the course of the next week. The situation is looking rather bleak for Macron, who looks like he will have to hand some control over to his political enemies. After the second round results come in, Macron, as president, will pick the prime minister – who is usually from the winning party. If the prime minister and president are from different parties, the government enters a state of a “cohabitation”, which has only happened three times in post-war France. “Macron is looking at just under three years in cohabitation either with a hostile government in the shape of a RN majority, possibly in coalition with centre-right MPs, or with a parliament that is so divided, fractious and fragmented that it’ll just be completely impossible for him to get anything done,” Jon says. | 