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📰 Market Headlines |
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On the last trading day of March, the S&P 500 notched its strongest first quarter in five years with one last record high. The US economy outpaced estimates in Q4, as the GDP was revised upward to 3.4%. Consumers expect inflation to fall to 2.9% for the next year, the lowest expected level since the pandemic. Core PCE comes out today with forecasts between 0.3% and 0.4% growth, MoM. European markets closed the quarter 6.8% higher as the Stoxx 600 index hit another all-time high. Sam Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, was sentenced to 25 years in prison. Reddit shares tumbled nearly 25%, finishing the week below their first-day closing price. $DJT was down 6.5%. |
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🕶️ Market Vibes |
🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures |
Forecasts via Kalshi, the prediction market. The prediction market is forecasting three rate cuts again. |
The Q1 GDP market looks good after the Q4 revision. |
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😱 Fear and Greed Index |
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🧠 What do you think? |
🎤 What you said last time |
Looks like “Dividend Kings” might get dethroned. |
Nice to see how well-loved the international element is; we’ve got a cosmopolitan readership 🌏️ |
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Speak now or forever hold your peace. Should we eliminate the Fixed Income and Crypto parts of the newsletter? |
What should we get rid of? |
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📈 Trends you need to know | |
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Slow and steady…but maybe a bit boring? |
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📊 Stocks |
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Winners and losers |
Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions |
Walgreens Boots Alliance stocks rose 3.2% despite a reported $5.9 billion loss in net income. RH missed Q4 estimates, however stocks soared 15% on excellent guidance for 2024. Rumble reported strong Q4 user growth, but weak engagement caused a 4% drop in shares. |
Market movers |
Amazon has outlined a strategy to save $1.3 billion through office vacancy reductions and lease renegotiations. Donald Trump's Truth Social "puts all other meme stocks to shame." The New York City Retirement System backed Disney in its battle against Trian and Blackwells. Braze shares plummeted 12.5% following soft guidance for Q1 and FY25. The US has begun its semiconductor supply chain partnership with Mexico. Sega announced plans to cut 240 jobs following the sale of Relic Entertainment. |
Ideas, trends, and analysis |
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🌍 Global Perspectives | 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 The World Court ordered Israel to halt the spreading famine in Gaza. 🇨🇳 President Xi Jinping met with US CEOs to discuss economic policies, tech self-sufficiency, and Taiwan independence. 🇯🇵 Japan issued a nationwide recall of "red rice" dietary supplements after four users died and over 100 were hospitalized. 🇨🇿 The Czech government sanctioned pro-Russian Ukrainian politician Viktor Medvedchuk. 🌏 Interpol reported that Southeast Asian human trafficking exploded into a $3 trillion global crisis during the pandemic. |
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🧠 Errata | US tuberculosis cases hit a 10-year high in 2023, with a 16% increase from 2022. Hot sauce aficionados claim Sriracha has lost its heat. [Ed: Nothing doesn’t taste better with Sriracha sauce on it] NYC plans to test gun scanners in the subway system in response to rising transit crime. Alzheimer's may be able to spread through organ transplants, a new mice study suggests. |
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📺 What to Watch Today |
What’s Core PCE, and why do you care? |
| Why consumers need to care about core PCE |
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That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know. | Cheers, | Wyatt |
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*Disclosures: Paid for by Public Investing. Options are not suitable for all investors and carry significant risk. Option investors can rapidly lose the value of their investment in a short period of time and incur permanent loss by expiration date. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk. Prior to buying or selling an option, investors must read and understand the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”, also known as the options disclosure document. If you are enrolled in Public's Options Order Flow Rebate Program, Public Investing will share 50% of our estimated order flow revenue for each completed options trade as a rebate to help reduce your trading costs. Must activate Options Account by March 31 for revenue share. To learn more, see Fee Schedule. US members only. |
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