President Obama looks on as first lady Michelle Obama speaks at Andrews Air Force Base on May 5. (Cliff Owen/Associated Press) Every week, I answer a question from Monday’s Act Four chat in the Wednesday edition of this newsletter. You can read the Nov. 14 chat here and submit questions for the Nov. 21 chat here. This week, politics were on many readers’ minds, and one raised the question of a possible political realignment: After the Clinton/Trump 2016 fiasco, we can hope that this is the last of the baby boomer president. As an early gen-Xer (b. 1980), I hope that our next president will be from the GenX generation. Boomer presidents, no matter their party affiliation, will never be serious about entitlement reforms because that’s where their votes are from. Granted, a GenX candidate would still need to appeal to the social security class, but hopefully provide a more substantial way forward. As the DEM goes back to licking their wounds, and the GOP tries to figure how to govern under Trump, there seems to be an opening for a fiscally conservative/socially progressive GenX path. A quick clarification: President Barack Obama was actually the first Gen Xer to hold the presidency; Generation X is generally determined to include people who were born in the early 1960s to, at the latest, the early 1980s. So if you were born in 1980, you’re either a late Gen Xer or an early millenial (I was born in 1984, and I do think there’s a difference between those of us who grew up without home Internet access and cellphones, but that’s a side quibble). That said, I think there’s a long tradition of wishing that demographic transitions will bring about political change, be it a permanent Democratic majority ushered in by people of color or the prospect of an enduring Reagan Revolution fueled by young conservatives coming of age under their inspirational president. And I think those theories tend to be wrong: There are no permanent victories or losses in American politics. What you’re describing is a realignment, which is more possible; it’s worth watching HBO’s adaptation of “All The Way,” about Lyndon Baines Johnson, the Civil Rights Act and the 1964 presidential race for a fictionalized look at how party coalitions can shift. But I don’t know that entitlement reform is going to be the pivot; Americans fairly consistently say they’d prefer to raise taxes rather than cut benefits. It’s not so much that candidates themselves are of an age to use Social Security benefits and thus resistant to reforming entitlements; it’s that older people in general tend to turn out in higher numbers, and so politicians tend to be responsive to their concerns. To your broader point, though, if the election established anything, it doesn’t seem to be a voter penchant for fiscally conservative policies. |