Yen Gains BoJ Hike Speculations, Sterling Steady after Inflation Data, Dollar Awaits CPI
| Action Insight Daily Report 1-15-25 |
Yen Gains BoJ Hike Speculations, Sterling Steady after Inflation Data, Dollar Awaits CPI |
Yen's recovery gained some momentum today on as speculation over an imminent BoJ rate hike. Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s earlier comments, suggesting that next week’s policy meeting could bring a shift in monetary policy. The unified tone from BoJ’s leadership is seen a calculated effort to prime markets for potential action. Overnight index swaps now indicate a 68% probability of a BoJ rate hike in January, rising to 86% by March. Positive observations by BoJ's regional branch managers on wages growth should have bolstered the confidence in BoJ’s readiness to act. Despite this, uncertainty still lingers as BoJ policymakers await US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration speech early next week, which may provide more concrete insights into his trade and economic policies...... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.33; (P) 157.76; (R1) 158.41; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as sideway trading continues. Further rally is in favor as long as 156.0 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25 will extend the rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 156.01 support will confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 154.46) instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Dec | 1.30% | 1.20% | 1.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Dec | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Dec | 2.50% | 2.70% | 2.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Dec | 3.20% | 3.40% | 3.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Dec | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Dec | 3.50% | 3.70% | 3.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input M/M Dec | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input Y/Y Dec | -1.50% | -1.30% | -1.90% | -2.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output M/M Dec | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output Y/Y Dec | 0.10% | 0% | -0.60% | -0.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output M/M Dec | 0.00% | 0.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output Y/Y Dec | 1.50% | 1.60% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Nov | 0.30% | 0.00% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Nov | 0.50% | 2.10% | | 13:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Nov | -0.70% | 1.00% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI M/M Dec | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Dec | 2.80% | 2.70% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Dec | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Dec | 3.30% | 3.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Jan | -1.8 | 0.2 | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.0M | -1.0M | | 19:00 | USD | Fed's Beige Book |
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