Sterling Remains Pressured as Retail Sales Round Out Weak UK Data Trio
| Action Insight Daily Report 1-17-25 |
Sterling Remains Pressured as Retail Sales Round Out Weak UK Data Trio |
Sterling continues to trade under pressure following a week of disappointing UK economic data, with weak December retail sales completing a trio of negative reports that also included lower-than-expected GDP growth and CPI readings. The data has reinforced market expectations that BoE would ease monetary policy in 2025, as the economy struggles under the new measures of the government's Autumn Budget. Current interest rate futures are pricing in just two 25bps rate cuts for the year, but a recent Reuters poll (January 10–15) suggests greater dovish sentiment among economists. Of the 63 surveyed, 38 anticipate four rate cuts in 2025, which would bring the Bank Rate down to 3.75%. Immediate action is expected at the February 6 policy meeting, with all 65 participants in the survey forecasting a 25 bps cut. However, elevated core inflation, which remains stubbornly high at 3.2%, limits BoE's room to signal further easing ahead. This hesitation risks limiting both business confidence and broader economic morale, even on a psychological level.... |
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8404; (P) 0.8421; (R1) 0.8435; More... Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral first with focus on 0.8446 resistance. Decisive break there will resume the rally from 0.8221 to 0.8624 cluster resistance zone. On the downside, however, break of 0.8403 minor support will indicate rejection by 0.8446, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8332). | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI Dec | 45.9 | 45.5 | | 02:00 | CNY | GDP Y/Y Q4 | 5.40% | 5.00% | 4.60% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Dec | 6.20% | 5.40% | 5.40% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Dec | 3.70% | 3.50% | 3.00% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) Y/Y Dec | 3.20% | 3.30% | 3.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Dec | -0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Current Account (EUR) Nov | 28.0B | 25.8B | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec F | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Dec F | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 13:30 | USD | Building Permits Dec | 1.46M | 1.49M | | 13:30 | USD | Housing Starts Dec | 1.32M | 1.29M | | 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Dec | 0.30% | -0.10% | | 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Dec | 77.10% | 76.80% |
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