Yen Dives after BoJ, Euro Looking Vulnerable
| Action Insight Daily Report 1-18-23 |
Yen Dives after BoJ, Euro Looking Vulnerable |
Yen falls broadly after BoJ defied some speculations and kept yield cap unchanged today. The announcement also sent Nikkei sharply higher while shot 10-year JGB yield down. Nevertheless, it's still a bit early to confirm reversals in Yen crosses. Meanwhile, commodity currencies are trading firmer today. European majors are on the weaker side. In particular, Euro looks relatively vulnerable in crosses on reports that ECB is considering to slow down rate hike in March. Dollar is mixed for now, and looks forward to retail sales and PPI data. Technically, one focus today is on whether Euro's selloff will gain further momentum. Firm break of 0.8768 support in EUR/GBP, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 0.8545 to 0.8896 at 0.8762, will argue that whole rebound from 0.9545 has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 0.8679, and possibly further to retest 0.8545 low. If happens, such development would likely be accompanied by deeper selloff in EUR/CHF towards 0.9720 support too. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 2.54%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.10%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.13%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.20%. Japan 10-year yield is down -0.0802 at 0.424, after diving to as low as 0.368. Overnight, DOW dropped -1.14%. S&P 500 dropped -0.20%. NASDAQ rose 0.14%. 10-year yield rose 0.024 to 3.535. |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.71; (P) 128.44; (R1) 128.88; More... USD/JPY rebounds notably but there is no confirmation of reversal yet. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 133.61 support turned resistance will firstly confirm short term bottoming at 127.20. More importantly, whole correction from 151.93 might have completed too. Bias will then be turned back to the upside for 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 first. However, break of 127.20 will resume the decline form 151.93 to 121.43 fibonacci level next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M Nov | -8.30% | -0.90% | 5.40% | | 02:40 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Nov F | 0.20% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Dec | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Dec | 10.60% | 10.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Dec | 6.60% | 6.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Dec | 1.00% | 0.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Dec | 13.90% | 14.00% | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy Trade Balance (EUR) Nov | -1.80B | -2.12B | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec F | 9.20% | 9.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Dec F | 5.20% | 5.20% | | 13:30 | CAD | Raw Material Price Index Dec | -0.80% | | 13:30 | CAD | Industrial Product Price M/M Dec | -0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Dec | -0.80% | -0.60% | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Dec | -0.50% | -0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Dec | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Dec | 5.90% | 6.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI M/M Dec | -0.10% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Dec | 6.80% | 7.40% | | 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Dec | -0.10% | -0.20% | | 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Dec | 79.60% | 79.70% | | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories Nov | 0.40% | 0.30% | | 15:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Jan | 31 | 31 | | 19:00 | USD | Fed's Beige Book |
|
|
|
