Risk Appetite Returns as Focus Shifts to US CPI
| Action Insight Daily Report 10-10-24 |
Risk Appetite Returns as Focus Shifts to US CPI |
Risk-on sentiment is back in the global markets, with DOW and S&P 500 surging to new record highs in the latest session. Notably, this rally isn’t limited to just the big tech giants. ETFs tracking both industrials and financials sectors also closed at record highs, signaling that the strength is broad-based, extending across multiple sectors of the economy. Today’s spotlight is on the US CPI report, which is expected to show further easing in headline inflation. However, core inflation may continue to show signs of stickiness. This CPI data is unlikely to alter market expectations of a 25bps rate cut by Fed in both November and December, which fed funds futures indicate have over 80% probability. However, the CPI numbers could significantly influence Fed's upcoming economic projections in December, shaping expectations for the first quarter of 2025 and beyond. In Asia, markets are also staging a strong comeback, with both Hong Kong and China seeing robust rebounds following a bout of extreme volatility. The People’s Bank of China has launched a CNY 500B initiative to inject liquidity into the financial system by allowing institutional investors to swap their bond and stock holdings for government securities. This move, alongside expectations for a fiscal stimulus announcement during Finance Minister Lan Foan’s press conference on Saturday, is bolstering market sentiment in the region... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3663; (P) 1.3691; (R1) 1.3739; More... USD/CAD's rally from 1.3418 continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Pullback from 1.3946 should have completed at 1.3418 already. Rise from there would target 61.8% retracement of 1.3946 to 1.3418 at 1.3559. Decisive break there will target 1.3946 again. On the downside, below 1.3642 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Sep | 11% | 7% | 1% | 0% | | 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Y/Y Sep | 2.70% | 2.90% | 3% | | 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y Sep | 2.80% | 2.30% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Oct | 4.00% | 4.40% | | 11:30 | EUR | ECB Meeting Accounts | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 4) | 231K | 225K | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M Sep | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Sep | 2.30% | 2.50% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Sep | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Sep | 3.20% | 3.20% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 73B | 55B |
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