Dollar Struggling for Momentum, Await CPI for Guidance
| Action Insight Daily Report 10-13-22 |
Dollar Struggling for Momentum, Await CPI for Guidance |
The markets are generally steady in Asian session today, as traders await US consumer inflation data. FOMC minutes released overnight basically provided nothing to counter the expectation of a 75bps hike by Fed in November. Today's data might further affirm such expectations. While Dollar is firm, it's struggling to build up momentum except versus Yen. There's good chance for Dollar bulls jump in if the CPI data surprise on the upside. Technically, S&P 500 stabilized a little bit after dipping to 2-year low earlier, but stays vulnerable. As long as 3806.91 resistance holds, further decline is expected. Current down trend is still in progress for 100% projection of 4818.62 to 3636.87 from 4325.28 at 3143.53 later in the year. The speed of the decline would very much depend on the Fed's tightening pace and terminal rate, which ties to inflation outlook. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.51%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.00%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.16%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.16%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0010 at 0.253. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.10%. S&P 500 dropped -0.33%. NASDAQ dropped -0.09%. 10-year yield dropped -0.037 to 3.902. |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3775; (P) 1.3803; (R1) 1.3845; More... USD/CAD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is still expected with 1.3701 minor support intact. Current up trend should target 161.8% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3925. Decisive break there will target 200% projection at 1.4285. On the downside, below 1.3701 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3501 support instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Sep | 32% | 48% | 53% | 51% | | 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Y/Y Sep | 2.30% | 2.20% | 1.90% | | 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y Sep | 9.70% | 8.80% | 9.00% | 9.40% | | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Oct | 5.40% | 5.40% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Sep F | 1.90% | 1.90% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Sep F | 10.00% | 10.00% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 7) | 225K | 219K | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M Sep | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Sep | 8.10% | 8.30% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Sep | 0.50% | 0.60% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Sep | 6.50% | 6.30% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 126B | 129B | | 15:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 0.9M | -1.4M |
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