Euro Awaits ECB Rate Hike, Dollar Staying Weak
| Action Insight Daily Report 10-27-22 |
Euro Awaits ECB Rate Hike, Dollar Staying Weak |
Dollar remains broadly softer, and stays as the worst performer for the week. It's partly dragged down by the pull back in treasury yields, with 10-year yield breaching 4% handle overnight. Canadian Dollar is the next weakest, after the smaller than expected 50bps rate hike by BoC. On the other, Sterling remains the winner on political stabilization, but Euro is not too far away. The common currency indeed has prospect to overwhelm the Pound as reaction to today's ECB rate decision, which will catch all attention. Technically, commodity currencies will also be a focus today. Risk-on sentiment in the US was rather uneven. That is, DOW's rebound was very strong. But NASDAQ lacked well behind. That's a reason for the relative indecisiveness in Aussie and Canadian. Attention will stay on 0.6539 resistance in AUD/USD, and 1.3501 support in USD/CAD. Firm break of these levels will align the outlook with EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and indicate that more selling in Dollar is underway. But of course, that would be subject to the development in overall market sentiment. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.14%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.74%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.07%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.11%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0008 to 0.258. Overnight, DOW rose 0.01%, S&P 500 dropped -0.74%. NASDAQ dropped -2.04%. 10-year yield dropped -0.0093 to 4.015. |
EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9989; (P) 1.0039; (R1) 1.0134; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.9534 is in progress for 38.2% retracement of 1.1494 to 0.9534 at 1.0283. On the downside, below 0.9942 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 | 3.00% | 0.80% | 4.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Nov | -41.8 | -42.5 | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Main Refinancing Rate | 2.00% | 1.25% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 21) | 225K | 214K | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q3 P | 2.40% | -0.60% | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 P | 5.40% | 9.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Sep | 0.50% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Sep | 0.00% | 0.20% | | 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 111B |
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