Aussie Struggles Persist as Disinflation Raises Rate Cut Prospects
| Action Insight Daily Report 10-30-24 |
Aussie Struggles Persist as Disinflation Raises Rate Cut Prospects |
Australian Dollar's misery continues today, firstly pressured by Q3 inflation data that showed encouraging progress on disinflation. This development has strengthened the case for RBA to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.35% in its upcoming meeting next week. More importantly, a rate cut in February now appears more probable than ever. While there are some speculations about a possible cut as early as December, persistent inflation in the services sector suggests that RBA would prefer to wait for additional data before easing monetary policy. The Commonwealth Bank, previously the only one among Australia's big four banks forecasting a December rate cut, has today adjusted its expectation to February, aligning with Westpac, NAB, and ANZ. Further weighing on the Aussie is ongoing weakness in Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets. Reports from Reuters yesterday indicate that China’s top legislative body may unveil a substantial CNY 10T (USD 1.4T) stimulus package next week. This announcement, timed around the US presidential election on November 5, could allow for strategic adjustments to the stimulus plan based on the election’s outcome. However, market enthusiasm has remained muted, without doubt on the details and effectiveness of the new fiscal measures.... |
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6431; (P) 1.6466; (R1) 1.6525; More... Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside as rise from 1.6002 is extending. Current development suggest that fall from 1.7180 has completed with three waves down to 1.6002, after being supported by 1.5996. Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.7180 to 1.6002 at 1.6730 next. On the downside, below 1.6146 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Sep | 2.10% | 2.30% | 2.70% | | 00:30 | AUD | CPI Q/Q Q3 | 0.20% | 0.30% | 1.00% | | 00:30 | AUD | CPI Y/Y Q3 | 2.80% | 2.90% | 3.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q3 | 0.80% | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.90% | | 00:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q3 | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.90% | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Oct | 36.2 | 36.8 | 36.9 | | 06:30 | EUR | France Consumer Spending M/M Sep | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 08:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Oct | 105 | 105.5 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Oct | 18K | 17K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Oct | 6.10% | 6.00% | | 09:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Oct | -8.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 P | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Oct | 96.4 | 96.2 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct | -10.5 | -10.9 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Oct | 6.7 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct F | -12.5 | -12.5 | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Oct | 110K | 143K | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q3 P | 3.00% | 3.00% | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 P | 2.70% | 2.50% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Oct P | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Oct P | 1.80% | 1.60% | | 14:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Sep | 1.90% | 0.60% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.5M | 5.5M |
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