Dollar Weakness Prevails as Market Bets on Fed Rate Pivot, H1 Cut Expectations Surge
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-15-23 |
Dollar Weakness Prevails as Market Bets on Fed Rate Pivot, H1 Cut Expectations Surge |
Dollar remains subdued in the aftermath of its significant selloff triggered by CPI release overnight. Market sentiment has swiftly shifted, with the majority now almost ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes by Fed. This shift indicates a growing consensus that current federal funds rate of 5.25-5.50% marks the peak of this cycle. Moreover, traders are increasingly speculating more boldly on the timing of rate cuts, with approximately 30% chance by the end of Q1 and over 80% probability by the end of the first half of the next year. This speculation is primarily driven by the belief that Fed might pivot to easing policies sooner if economic data continues to show signs of a downturn.... |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2337; (P) 1.2421; (R1) 1.2583; More... GBP/USD's rally extends to as high as 1.2504 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 1.3141 to 1.2036 at 1.2458 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.2716. On the downside, below 1.2443 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained well above 1.2185 support to bring another rally. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Wage Price Index Q/Q Q3 | 1.30% | 1.30% | 0.80% | 0.90% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Q/Q Q3 P | -0.50% | -0.10% | 1.20% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q3 P | 5.10% | 4.80% | 3.50% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y Oct | 4.60% | 4.50% | 4.50% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y Oct | 7.60% | 7.00% | 5.50% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Oct | 2.90% | 3.10% | 3.10% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Sep F | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Oct | 4.70% | 6.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Oct | 5.80% | 6.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Oct | 0.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Oct | 6.40% | 8.90% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input M/M Oct | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input Y/Y Oct | -2.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output M/M Oct | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output Y/Y Oct | -0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output M/M Oct | 0.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output Y/Y Oct | 0.70% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Sep | 12.3B | 11.9B | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep | -0.90% | 0.60% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Sep | 0.80% | 0.70% | | 13:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Sep | 1.40% | 2.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Nov | -2.6 | -4.6 | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Oct | -0.30% | 0.70% | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Oct | -0.20% | 0.60% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI M/M Oct | 0.10% | 0.50% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Oct | 1.90% | 2.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Oct | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories Sep | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories |
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