Yen Rebound Gains Momentum, NZD Gains on RBNZâs Moderated Easing Outlook
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-27-24 |
Yen Rebound Gains Momentum, NZD Gains on RBNZ’s Moderated Easing Outlook |
Kiwi rebounded broadly during Asian session, supported by a less dovish-than-expected rate cut from RBNZ. While the 50bps reduction to 4.25% had been widely anticipated, RBNZ’s updated forecasts, which suggest a slower pace of easing in 2025, surprised markets. The central bank projects the OCR to reach 3.50% by the end of next year, a level slightly higher than many had anticipated. This has divided analysts over the February rate decision, with ANZ expecting a 25bps cut while Westpac holds firm on a 50bps reduction. Regardless of the outcome, the moderated easing trajectory has bolstered Kiwi against its peers. Yen also extended its rally, gaining strength across the board as its rebound against Dollar and European currencies gained momentum. While US Treasury yields showed some overnight recovery, they have struggled to generate sustained upward movement. 10-year yield is just testing critical technical support, reflecting hesitation among bond buyers. Hopes remain that Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent might instill fiscal discipline in the Trump administration, at least for now. For the week so far, Yen is currently the strongest performer, followed by Swiss Franc, both benefiting from falling US and European yields. Euro has clawed back some ground after earlier losses, placing third. On the weaker side, Loonie continues to lag, weighed down by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff threats. Aussie and Dollar round out the bottom three, with Kiwi and Sterling holding middle positions.... |
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.17; (P) 161.64; (R1) 162.30; More.... EUR/JPY's fall from 166.67 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. As noted before, corrective rebound from 154.40 could have completed with three waves up to 166.67. Deeper decline would be seen to 155.14 support next. On the upside, above 162.10 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 00:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Oct | 2.10% | 2.50% | 2.10% | | 01:00 | NZD | RBNZ Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.75% | | 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Press Conference | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Dec | -18.8 | -18.3 | | 09:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Nov | -7.7 | | 13:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q3 P | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 13:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 P | 1.80% | 1.80% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 22) | 220K | 213K | | 13:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (USD) Oct P | -101.6B | -108.2B | | 13:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Oct P | -0.10% | -0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Oct | 0.40% | -0.70% | | 13:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Oct | 0.20% | 0.50% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Personal Spending Oct | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 2.30% | 2.10% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Oct | 2.80% | 2.70% | | 14:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Nov | 44.9 | 41.6 | | 15:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Oct | -1.70% | 7.40% | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.3M | 0.5M | | 17:00 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -4B | -3B |
|
|
|
