Yen Rally Resumes on Tokyo CPI, Swiss GDP and Eurozone Inflation Watched
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-28-24 |
Yen Rally Resumes on Tokyo CPI, Swiss GDP and Eurozone Inflation Watched |
Yen resumed its broad-based rally during the Asian session, lifted by stronger-than-expected Tokyo inflation data. The accelerated inflation figures have reignited market speculation about another rate hike by BoJ as early as December. Overnight index swaps now suggest there is over 60% probability of a 25bps increase at this upcoming meeting. A key highlight from the inflation report is the continued uptick in services inflation, indicating that price pressures are becoming more entrenched in the domestic economy. The rise in core-core CPI also signaled that underlying inflation is gaining momentum beyond volatile food and energy prices. However, the less-than-stellar retail sales growth raises questions about the robustness of domestic demand. This softness in retail activity may temper BoJ's urgency to act immediately, as policymakers might seek more concrete evidence of sustained demand-pull inflation before making a policy shift. Nevertheless, a recent Bloomberg poll showed that over 80% of economists surveyed expect BoJ to adjust its policy by January. Similarly, a Reuters survey showed that 90% of economists anticipate an increase in the policy rate from the current 0.25% to 0.50% by the end of March. This widespread expectation suggests that while the exact timing remains uncertain, a rate hike is likely to occur within the next few months..... |
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.58; (P) 192.03; (R1) 192.73; More... GBP/JPY's decline from 199.79 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. As noted before, corrective rise from 180.00 could have completed with three waves up to 199.79. Deeper decline would be seen to 183.70 support next. On the upside, above 192.45 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will now stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 194.88) holds, in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y Nov | 2.60% | 1.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov | 2.20% | 2.10% | 1.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Nov | 1.90% | 1.80% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Oct P | 3.00% | 3.90% | 1.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Oct | 1.60% | 2.10% | 0.70% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Oct | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.40% | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Oct | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Oct | -2.90% | -2.00% | -0.60% | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Nov | 36.4 | 36.4 | 36.2 | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M Oct | 0.20% | -0.40% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct | -0.50% | 1.20% | | 07:45 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q3 | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 08:00 | CHF | GDP Q/Q Q3 | 0.40% | 0.70% | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Nov | 6.10% | 6.10% | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Nov | 20K | 27K | | 09:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Oct | 65K | 66K | | 09:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Oct | 0.40% | 0.60% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Nov P | 2.30% | 2.00% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Nov P | 2.80% | 2.70% | | 13:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Sep | 0.30% | 0.00% |
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