UK GDP Takes Center Stage as Dollar Momentum Fades
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-13-25 |
UK GDP Takes Center Stage as Dollar Momentum Fades |
The forex markets was subdued in Asian session today. Dollar strength faded quickly after initial boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data. While the greenback retains most of its gains against Yen, it has started to weaken against other major currencies. The reluctance of Dollar to sustain its rally—despite reduced odds of a Fed rate cut in the first half of 2025 and ongoing tariff threats—suggests that another down leg may be on the horizon. With US inflation data out of the way, market focus now shifts to the UK, where Q4 GDP figures are set for release. The economy is expected to have contracted -0.1% qoq, with a modest 0.1% mom expansion in December. Think tank NIESR remains cautiously optimistic, predicting subdued growth in the first half of the year before an acceleration in the second half. It expects GDP growth of 1.5% for 2025, supported by higher government spending and business investment.... |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2387; (P) 1.2435; (R1) 1.2493; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Corrective rebound from 1.2099 could still extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2609. On the downside, below 1.2331 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2248 support. Firm break there will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.2099 low. However, decisive break of 1.2609 will raise the chance of near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.2923. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y Jan | 4.20% | 4.00% | 3.80% | 3.90% | | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Feb | 4.60% | 4.00% | | 00:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Jan | 22% | 27% | 28% | 26% | | 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Inflation Expectations Q1 | 2.06% | 2.12% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Jan F | -0.20% | -0.20% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Jan F | 2.30% | 2.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q4 P | -0.10% | 0.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Dec | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Dec | 0.30% | -0.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Dec | -2.10% | -1.80% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Dec | 0.10% | -0.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec | -1.90% | -1.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Dec | -18.3B | -19.3B | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI M/M Jan | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI Y/Y Jan | 0.40% | 0.60% | | 09:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec | -0.60% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI M/M Jan | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Jan | 3.30% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Jan | 0.30% | 0.00% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Jan | 3.50% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 7) | 221K | 219K | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -90B | -174B |
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