Dollar Turns Soft, CPI Awaited
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-14-23 |
Dollar Turns Soft, CPI Awaited |
Dollar is trading on the softer side again as focus turns to CPI report from the US today. While the markets are finally buying in that federal fund rates would peak above 5% level, there are already some bets on a higher terminal rate. Meanwhile, the bets on a rate cut this year is receding after Fed officials repeatedly rule that out. Eventually, the path would be heavily dependent on the inflation outlook. Elsewhere, Yen is recovering but remains the weakest one for the weak. Sterling is the strongest, followed by Aussie and then Swiss Franc. Euro is mixed for now. Technically, selloff in Gold and EUR/USD have slowed, as they are both trying to draw support from 55 day EMAs respectively. For Gold, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1890.10 resistance, will indicate that pull back from 1959.47 has completed. More importantly, in such case, even if the corrective pattern might extent, rise from 1614.60 should resume at a later stage. Such development would also affirm EUR/USD's bullishness for another rally through 1.1032. In Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.64%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.17%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.10%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.25%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0020 at 0.506. Overnight, DOW rose 1.11%. S&P 500 rose 1.14%. NASDAQ rose 1.48%. 10-year yield dropped -0.027 to 3.717. |
EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0677; (P) 1.0704; (R1) 1.0751; More... EUR/USD recovered after edging lower to 1.0654 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the downside, break of 1.0654 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1032 to 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support should be seen around there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside, above 1.0790 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.1032 high instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb | -6.90% | 5.00% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Q/Q Q4 P | 0.20% | 0.50% | -0.20% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 P | 1.10% | 1.10% | -0.30% | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions Jan | 18 | 12 | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Jan | 6 | -1 | | 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Inflation Expectations Q/Q Q1 | 3.30% | 3.62% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Dec F | 0.30% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Jan | 9K | 19.7K | | 07:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Dec | 3.70% | 3.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Dec | 6.50% | 6.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Dec | 6.20% | 6.40% | | 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices M/M Jan | 0.20% | -0.70% | | 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Jan | 2.20% | 3.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q4 P | 0.10% | 0.30% | | 11:00 | USD | NFIB Business Optimism Index Jan | 89.8 | | 13:30 | USD | CPI M/M Jan | 0.50% | 0.10% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Jan | 6.20% | 6.50% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Jan | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Jan | 5.30% | 5.70% |
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