Japan's Recession Can't Hold Back Yen's Recovery and Nikkei's Surge
Action Insight Daily Report 2-15-24 |
Japan's Recession Can't Hold Back Yen's Recovery and Nikkei's Surge |
Japanese Yen recovers broadly in Asian session today, while Nikkei also soared to a new 34-year high, surpassing the 38k mark. The move came as a rather complex reactions to economic data showing that Japan unexpectedly slipping into recession. The surprised downturn also led to the country's demotion to the world's fourth-largest economy in 2023, with Germany ascending to third place. This economic setback has not deterred speculations BoJ is still on track to exit its long-standing negative interest rate policy within the current year. This optimism is grounded in the resilience of Japan's labor market and the robust investment intentions of its corporations. Yen's current recovery is largely reflective of market sentiment that aligns with these expectations. However, the equity market's robust performance suggests that investors may be anticipating a delayed policy adjustment by BoJ, at a time later than April... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.33; (P) 150.61; (R1) 150.86; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen first. Downside of consolidation should be contained by 148.79 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 150.87 will resume the rise from 140.25 to 151.89/93 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption of 155.50 projection level next. | |
GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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23:50 | JPY | GDP Q4 Q/Q P | -0.10% | 0.30% | -0.70% | -0.80% | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 P | 3.80% | 4.00% | 5.30% | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Feb | 4.50% | 4.50% | 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change Jan | 0.5K | 20.7K | -65.1K | -62.7K | 00:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Jan | 4.10% | 4.00% | 3.90% | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Dec F | 1.40% | 1.80% | 1.80% | 07:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Dec | -0.20% | 0.30% | 07:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q4 P | -0.10% | -0.10% | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Dec | -0.10% | 0.30% | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Dec | -0.10% | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Dec | 0.00% | 0.40% | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec | 1.30% | 07:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Dec | -14.1B | -14.2B | 07:30 | CHF | PPI M/M Jan | -0.20% | -0.60% | 07:30 | CHF | PPI Y/Y Jan | -1.10% | 08:00 | CHF | SECO Consumer Climate Q1 | -34 | -40 | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec | 15.7B | 14.8B | 13:00 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate Jan | 0.00% | 13:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Jan | 225K | 249K | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Dec | -0.50% | 1.20% | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 9) | 217K | 218K | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Jan | -0.20% | 0.60% | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jan | 0.10% | 0.40% | 13:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Jan | -0.10% | 0.00% | 13:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Feb | -12.5 | -43.7 | 13:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Feb | -8.9 | -10.6 | 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Jan | 0.30% | 0.10% | 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Jan | 78.80% | 78.60% | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories Dec | 0.30% | -0.10% | 15:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Feb | 46 | 44 | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -67B | -75B |
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