Yen Rallies as Strong GDP Fuels BoJ Rate Hike Speculation
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-17-25 |
Yen Rallies as Strong GDP Fuels BoJ Rate Hike Speculation |
Yen gained strength across the board after Japan’s Q4 GDP growth exceeded expectations, with both private consumption and capital investment rebounding. This development supports BoJ’s decision to hike in January and has fueled speculation that another rate increase could arrive sooner than expected. It's now seen by some economists that the timing of the next BoJ move will largely hinge on the outcome of the Shunto wage negotiations, with markets eyeing a hike as early as May if wage growth matches 2024 levels. Beyond Japan, Aussie and Kiwi have maintained their footing, benefitting from a mildly positive risk-on sentiment, even as both the RBA and RBNZ are expected to cut interest rates this week. Meanwhile, Dollar continues to struggle, extending its losses from last week. Euro and Swiss Franc are also on the softer side, while Loonie and Sterling trade mixed.... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.83; (P) 152.49; (R1) 152.96; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral first. Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49 would maintain near term bullishness. On the upside, break of 154.79 will revive the case that correction from 158.86 has completed at 150.29. Further rise should be seen to retest 158.86 high. However, break of 150.92 and sustained trading below 151.49 will raise the chance of trend reversal, and target 148.64 support instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:30 | NZD | Business NZ PSI Jan | 50.4 | 47.9 | 48.1 | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Q/Q Q4 P | 0.70% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 P | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.40% | | 04:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Index M/M Dec | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.30% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Dec | -0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec | 15.0B | 12.9B | | 13:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Jan | 250K | 231K |
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