RBAâs Cautious Easing Leaves AUD Supported, USD/JPY Ready for a Bounce?
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-18-25 |
RBA’s Cautious Easing Leaves AUD Supported, USD/JPY Ready for a Bounce? |
Australian Dollar initially dipped after RBA's widely expected rate cut, but the move was short-lived as the currency quickly stabilized. RBA’s cautious tone on further easing provided underlying support for the Aussie. The central bank made it clear that while policy easing has begun, it is not committing to a rapid or continuous rate-cut cycle. The updated economic projections justify RBA's cautious stance. Trimmed mean CPI is expected to stay at 2.7% throughout the forecast horizon, remaining above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 4.2% and is expected to hold steady, indicating a persistently tighter-than-expected labor market. RBA’s own cash rate assumptions suggest a drop to 3.60% by the end of 2025, implying just two more cuts before a prolonged pause. This guidance is against expectations for an aggressive easing cycle and could help limit AUD downside in the near term.... |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6345; (P) 0.6359; (R1) 0.6372; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral as rebound from 0.6087 lost moment, as seen in 4H MACD, after hitting 0.6373. On the downside, break of 0.6234 support will suggest that the rebound has completed as a correction, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6087 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413, will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 0.6615. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 03:30 | AUD | RBA Rate Decision | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.35% | | 07:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Jan | 10.0K | 0.7K | | 07:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Dec | 4.50% | 4.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Dec | 5.90% | 5.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Dec | 5.90% | 5.60% | | 10:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb | 20.2 | 10.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Feb | -89 | -90.4 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Feb | 25.4 | 18 | | 13:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Feb | -1 | -12.6 | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Jan | 0.10% | -0.40% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Jan | 1.80% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Media Y/Y Jan | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Jan | 2.60% | 2.50% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Jan | 2.00% | 2.00% | | 15:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Index Feb | 47 | 47 |
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