Kiwi Wobbles After RBNZ Cut, Markets Eye UK CPI and FOMC Minutes
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-19-25 |
Kiwi Wobbles After RBNZ Cut, Markets Eye UK CPI and FOMC Minutes |
New Zealand Dollar initially weakened following RBNZ's 50bps rate cut today, but quickly regained ground as Governor Adrian Orr indicated that the pace of easing will slow in the coming months. Orr suggested that the central bank is likely to implement just more 25bps cuts, in April and May, provided that economic conditions unfold as expected. However, the Kiwi’s upside remains limited, as RBNZ revised its terminal rate forecast downward to 3.1% by year-end, slightly below November’s projection of 3.2%. Technically, we'd maintain the view that AUD/NZD's choppy rise from 1.0940 is a corrective move. So upside should be limited by 1.1177 resistance to bring near term reversal. Break of 1.1071 support will argue that the pattern from 1.1177 has started the third leg, and should decline towards 1.0940 support next. .... |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6335; (P) 0.6352; (R1) 0.6368; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for consolidations below 0.6373 temporary top. Rebound from 0.6087 is seen as a correction to the fall from 0.6941. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413. On the downside, break of 0.6234 support will suggest that the rebound has completed as a correction, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6087 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.6413, will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 0.6615. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:45 | NZD | PPI Input Q/Q Q4 | -0.90% | 1.40% | 1.90% | | 21:45 | NZD | PPI Output Q/Q Q4 | -0.10% | 1.10% | 1.50% | | 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M Dec | -1.20% | 0.30% | 3.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Jan | -0.86T | -0.24T | -0.03T | -0.22T | | 00:30 | AUD | Wage Price Index Q/Q Q4 | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.90% | | 01:00 | NZD | RBNZ Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% | 4.25% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Jan | -0.30% | 0.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Jan | 2.80% | 2.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Jan | 3.70% | 3.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Jan | -0.10% | 0.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Jan | 3.70% | 3.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input M/M Jan | 0.70% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input Y/Y Jan | -0.50% | -1.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output M/M Jan | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output Y/Y Jan | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output M/M Jan | 0% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output Y/Y Jan | 1.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Dec | 30.2B | 27.0B | | 13:30 | USD | Building Permits Jan | 1.45M | 1.48M | | 13:30 | USD | Housing Starts Jan | 1.39M | 1.50M | | 19:00 | USD | FOMC Minutes |
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