Dollar Stuck Between Falling Yields and Risk Aversion, Struggles for Direction
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-26-25 |
Dollar Stuck Between Falling Yields and Risk Aversion, Struggles for Direction |
Dollar remains stuck in a tug-of-war of conflicting forces. On one side, extended decline in US Treasury yields is pressuring the greenback, while on the other, risk aversion is offering some support. 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since December, looks on track to test the next Fibonacci support at 4.2%. Bond markets appear to be betting on a downturn, reflecting growing fears that the US economy could be headed for a rough landing as the administration's policies weigh on consumer confidence. Meanwhile, risk aversion is pressuring US stock markets, indirectly giving Dollar some support as a safe-haven asset. S&P 500 closed lower for the fourth straight session, while NASDAQ shed -1% following weak consumer confidence data. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, fiscal policy, and economic growth is amplifying recession fears, leading investors to seek refuge in bonds and defensive assets.... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4266; (P) 1.4293; (R1) 1.4345; More... Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral with focus turning to 1.4378 resistance as rebound from 1.4150 extends. Firm break there will suggest that the correction from 1.4791 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4791. On the downside, break of 1.4150 will target 1.3946 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.3418 to 1.4791 at 1.3942). | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Jan | 2.50% | 2.60% | 2.50% | | 00:30 | AUD | Construction Work Done Q4 | 0.50% | 0.80% | 1.60% | 2.00% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany GfK Consumer Sentiment Mar | -21.1 | -22.4 | | 09:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Feb | 17.7 | | 15:00 | USD | New Home Sales Jan | 677K | 698K | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.5M | 4.6M | | 15:00 | USD | Consumer Confidence Feb | 103.3 | 104.1 |
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