Commodity Currencies in Fragile Rebound, Await Concrete Market Stabilization Moves from China
| Action Insight Daily Report 2-7-24 |
Commodity Currencies in Fragile Rebound, Await Concrete Market Stabilization Moves from China |
Commodity currencies are the main movers in Asian markets today, gaining broadly, albeit against a backdrop of continued weak momentum. This situation unfolds as Chinese stocks carry forward their rebound from earlier this week, showcasing a divergence from Hong Kong's market dynamics, where signs of profit-taking are beginning to surface. The anticipation surrounding China's proposed CNY 2 trillion stabilization package for its stock markets has yet to materialize into actionable measures, especially notable as the Lunar New Year holiday draws near. This ongoing uncertainty casts a shadow over the recent gains in commodity currencies, suggesting a potential retraction to their earlier weekly positions unless China substantiates its supportive measures promptly. The response to New Zealand's employment data has been restrained. The significance of the unemployment rate returning to pre-pandemic levels cannot be understated, as it signals further loosening of the employment market. This development, coupled with the deceleration in private sector wage growth, paints a picture of an economy where labor dynamics are shifting further, albeit not at a pace that could compel RBNZ to pivot to policy loosening yet. As such, New Zealand Dollar's trajectory is likely to be influenced by the broader market sentiment in the short term, until more definitive cues from RBNZ's meeting at the month's end.... |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6492; (P) 0.6509; (R1) 0.6539; More... AUD/USD is extending consolidations from 0.6468 and intraday bias remains neutral. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6621 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 0.6468 will resume the fall from 0.6870, as part of the down trend from 0.7156, to 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6524 from 0.6621 at 0.6407 next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:45 | NZD | Employment Change Q4 | 0.40% | 0.30% | -0.20% | -0.10% | | 21:45 | NZD | Unemployment Rate Q4 | 4.00% | 4.30% | 3.90% | | 21:45 | NZD | Labour Cost Index Q/Q Q4 | 1.00% | 0.80% | 0.80% | | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index Dec P | 110 | 109.5 | 107.6 | | 06:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate M/M Jan | 2.20% | 2.20% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Dec | -0.20% | -0.70% | | 07:45 | EUR | France Trade Balance (EUR) Dec | -6.0B | -5.9B | | 08:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Jan | 654B | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy Retail Sales M/M Dec | 0.20% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) Dec | -62.3B | -63.2B | | 13:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) Dec | 1.1B | 1.6B | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.7M | 1.2M | | 18:30 | CAD | BoC Summary of Deliberations |
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