Dollar Stays Soft as Forex Markets Quiet, US CPI Highlights the Week
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-10-25 |
Dollar Stays Soft as Forex Markets Quiet, US CPI Highlights the Week |
Forex markets are trading quietly in the Asian session, remaining within Friday’s range and showing little impetus to move decisively in either direction. Dollar is staying on the back foot, with a lack of substantial buying interest to sustain a meaningful rebound. While last week’s non-farm payroll data helped calm fears of a rapid labor market slowdown, market sentiment remains cautious in the face of escalating uncertainties. Late last Friday, Morgan Stanley lowered its 2025 economic growth forecast for the US and highlighted mounting concerns about trade tensions. The bank noted that “earlier and broader tariffs should translate into softer growth this year.” In contrast to its previous assumption that any tariff-related drag on growth would be more pronounced in 2026. Morgan Stanley now projects Q4/Q4 2025 growth at 1.5% (down from 1.9%), and 2026 growth at 1.2% (down from 1.3%). Goldman Sachs also joined the wave of downward revisions, cutting its 2025 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.7%. Moreover, it raised its 12-month recession probability to 20%. While the odd is still low, it's a noticeable shift from the previously estimated 15%.... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.26; (P) 147.73; (R1) 148.51; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the downside at this point. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will pave the way to 139.57 support. On the upside, 149.32 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another fall. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Jan | 2.80% | 3.20% | 4.80% | 4.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Y/Y Feb | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3% | 2.90% | | 23:50 | JPY | Current Account (JPY) Jan | 1.94T | 1.99T | 2.73T | | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index Jan P | 108 | 108.1 | 108.4 | 108.3 | | 05:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb | 48.5 | 48.6 | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Jan | 1.50% | -2.40% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Jan | 21.2B | 20.7B | | 09:30 | EUR | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Mar | -10 | -12.7 |
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