Recession Fears Weigh on Markets as Risk-Off Trade Intensifies
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-11-25 |
Recession Fears Weigh on Markets as Risk-Off Trade Intensifies |
The risk-off sentiment that triggered the biggest US stock market selloff in months has spilled over into Asian markets, leading to broad declines across the region. The currency markets reflect this shift too, with traditional safe havens such as Japanese Yen and Swiss franc leading gains in Asia, while risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars face pressure. Unlike previous bouts of risk aversion, Dollar is not benefiting from the current flight to safety. This time, the core of the problem originates from the US economy itself, where recession worries are intensifying. Rather than flocking to the greenback, investors appear to be diversifying into other safe havens or moving to the sidelines until the dust settles. The uncertainty surrounding US trade policies has left businesses and consumers hesitant, potentially dragging economic growth lower. In response to the changing economic outlook, market participants are increasingly convinced that Fed will resume policy easing within the first half of the year. The only question is whether the next rate cut will arrive in May or June.... |
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7149; (P) 1.7213; (R1) 1.7320; More... EUR/AUD's rally resumed and brief consolidations and intraday is back on the upside. Rise from 1.6335 should now target 161.8% projection of 1.5963 to 1.6800 from 1.6355 at 1.7709 next. On the downside, below 1.7102 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring consolidations, before staging another rally. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:45 | NZD | Manufacturing Sales Q4 | 2.60% | -1.20% | 0.20% | | 23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar | 4.00% | 0.10% | | 23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending Y/Y Jan | 0.80% | 3.60% | 2.70% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Q/Q Q4 F | 0.60% | 0.70% | 0.70% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 F | 2.90% | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 23:50 | JPY | Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Feb | 1.20% | 1.40% | 1.30% | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Feb | -1 | 4 | 5 | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions Feb | 4 | 3 | | 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb P | 4.70% | | 10:00 | USD | NFIB Business Optimism Index Feb | 101 | 102.8 |
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