Banking Crisis Overshadows US CPI Release, Fed Hike Expectations Lowered
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-14-23 |
Banking Crisis Overshadows US CPI Release, Fed Hike Expectations Lowered |
Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of February US CPI figures today, although the banking crisis has overshadowed the event. The possibility of a 50bps hike by Fed next week has been priced out by the market. While traders still anticipate a 25bps hike, with a likelihood of over 70% as indicated in the fed funds futures, the chances of no hike at all could rise once again depending on how events unfold in the stock and bond markets. Major currency pairs and crosses are trading within yesterday's range, waiting for the next round of market turbulence. Dollar has been the weakest performer so far this week, followed by Euro and Canadian Dollar. Australian and New Zealand Dollars are recuperating from recent losses, while Yen and Swiss Franc are consolidating their gains. There is a chance for Yen and Franc to surge further if risk aversion picks up momentum again. Technically, GBP/AUD is trying to resume the rally from 1.5925 since late last week, but couldn't get rid of 1.8272 resistance clearly yet. The next move would very much depend on how risk sentiment evolves. For now, further rise is expected as long as 1.8026 support holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.5925 to 1.8272 from 1.7218 at 1.8668. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.37%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.11%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.87%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0489 at 0.257. Overnight,DOW dropped -0.28%. S&P 500 dropped -0.15%. NASDAQ rose 0.45%. 10-year yield dropped -0.18 to 3.515. |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2087; (P) 1.2143; (R1) 1.2240; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as rise from 1.1801 is extending. As noted before, the corrective pattern from 1.2445 should have completed with three waves to 1.1801. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.2445/6 resistance zone next. On the downside, below 1.2045 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence Mar | 0.00% | -6.90% | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions Feb | 17 | 18 | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Feb | -4 | 6 | | 07:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Feb | -12.4K | -12.9K | | 07:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jan | 3.80% | 3.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Jan | 6.60% | 6.70% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Jan | 5.70% | 5.90% | | 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices M/M Feb | 0.50% | 0.70% | | 07:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Feb | 3.40% | 3.30% | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy Industrial Output M/M Jan | -0.40% | 1.60% | | 11:00 | USD | NFIB Business Optimism Index Feb | 91.2 | 90.3 | | 12:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Jan | -0.40% | -1.50% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M Feb | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Feb | 6.00% | 6.40% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Feb | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Feb | 5.50% | 5.60% |
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