Action Insight Daily Report 3-15-23

Calm Markets Shrug Mixed China Data, Euro Lacks Momentum ahead of ECB

After days of market turbulence, Asian session has been relatively calm today. US stocks recovered overnight with a strong rebound in treasury yields, helping to calm market sentiments. Mixed economic data from China did not seem to have any significant impact on the markets.

With the banking crisis slowly fading into the background, focus is expected to shift back to economic data and central bank policies. The Euro is showing signs of firming up ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday, but there seems to be a lack of follow-through momentum. While there is some uncertainty, ECB is still expected to hike rates by 50bps. The key will be on the new economic projections and any guidance on the rate path forward.

Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc are currently the weakest currencies for the week, while the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Sterling are the strongest. However, the recovery in commodity currencies remains weak, so it's hardly a return to a risk-on environment yet.

Technically, AUD/JPY recovered ahead of 87.00 support. But outlook is unchanged that corrective rise from 87.00 has completed at 93.02. Another decline to retest 87.00 is expected sooner rather than later. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 99.32. However, sustained trading above 4 hour 55 EMA will argue that corrective pattern from 87.00 is extending with another rising leg, and stronger rebound could be seen back to 93.02.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -0.30%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.26%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.60%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.24%. Japan 10-yaer JGB yield is up 0.0466 at 0.330. Overnight, DOW rose 1.06%. S&P 500 rose 1.65%. NASDAQ rose 2.14%. 10-year yield rose 0.123 to 3.638.

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0691; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0762; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Corrective decline from 1.1032 should have completed at 1.5023, ahead of 1.0482 key support. Break of 1.0803 resistance will bring retest of 1.1032 high next. On the downside, below 1.0649 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. In this case, decline from 1.1032 could resume through 1.0523 to keys structural support at 1.0482.

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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