Dollar Stays Weak as Markets Await Fed Guidance, Yen Softens After BoJ Hold
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-19-25 |
Dollar Stays Weak as Markets Await Fed Guidance, Yen Softens After BoJ Hold |
Dollar remains under pressure as markets await FOMC rate decision and, more crucially, the updated economic projections. While the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, traders are looking for any signs that Fed officials are adjusting their outlook in response to mounting trade tensions. Meanwhile, US stocks saw another selloff overnight, led by the tech sector, though major indexes have so far held above last week’s lows. Sentiment remains fragile, and any dovish elements in Fed’s projections could trigger another round of risk aversion and Dollar weakness. However, the biggest market move may be on hold until April 2, when the final decision on reciprocal tariffs is expected. Japanese Yen is also soft in a tight range after BoJ left monetary policy unchanged earlier today. While this decision was widely anticipated, some market participants noted that the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement suggested that the BoJ was not yet ready to accelerate rate hikes. Yen has also weakened this week on broader risk-on sentiment in Asia, despite the selloff in US equities. On the other hand, Euro remains firm, though lacking decisive upside momentum. Germany’s parliament approved the massive fiscal expansion plan yesterday, marking a historic departure from the country’s long-standing fiscal conservatism. This move has given CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz a significant political boost as he continues talks with the Social Democrats to form a centrist coalition government. While some economists argue that Germany’s fiscal expansion is the most significant since reunification, they also warned that structural reforms will be necessary to turn this spending into sustainable growth..... |
EUR/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0931; (R1) 1.0969; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.0176 should target 1.1274 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.0821 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 20:00 | NZD | Westpac Consumer Survey Q1 | 89.2 | 97.5 | | 21:45 | NZD | Current Account (NZD) Q4 | -7.04B | -6.64B | -10.58B | -10.84B | | 23:30 | AUD | Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb | 0.10% | 0.13% | | 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Feb | 0.18T | 0.51T | -0.86T | -0.60T | | 02:25 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Jan F | -1.10% | -1.10% | -1.10% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Feb F | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb F | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 0.8M | 1.4M | | 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.50% | 4.50% | | 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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