Yen Selloff Intensifies, Attention Shifts to UK CPI and FOMC
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-20-24 |
Yen Selloff Intensifies, Attention Shifts to UK CPI and FOMC |
Japanese Yen's decline intensified today and it's on the verge of breaking to new historical low against the greenback. Japan's stock markets are on holiday today, but the strong rally in Nikkei yesterday, which surged 40k psychological mark again, was significant. The robust risk-on sentiment within Japan and its weakening currency are clearly reinforcing each other. BoJ's rate hike yesterday, while historic in setting the stage for a new monetary era, does not herald the beginning of a tightening cycle, not yet. The yield gap between Japan and other major economies is set to remain significant, even with anticipated policy loosening by Fed, ECB and other major central banks this year. The escalating Yen selloff raises questions about reactions from Japanese officials, including the likelihood of verbal or direct market interventions to stabilize the currency. Meanwhile, Dollar maintains its position as the strongest currency of the week, with all eyes now on Fed's upcoming rate decision and economic projections. The key query is whether Fed will project three rate cuts for this year or lower the forecast to two. Sterling stands as the second strongest, awaiting the release of UK's CPI data, with Euro not far behind in third place... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.58; (P) 150.27; (R1) 151.55; More... USD/JPY surges past 150.87 resistance to resume the rally from 140.25. Intraday bias stays on the upside for next key resistance at 151.93. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 153.03. On the downside, below 150.76 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 149.09) holds. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 20:00 | NZD | Westpac Consumer Survey Q1 | 93.2 | 88.9 | | 21:45 | NZD | Current Account (NZD) Q4 | -7.84B | -7.80B | -11.47B | -10.97B | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany PPI M/M Feb | -0.20% | 0.20% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany PPI Y/Y Feb | -3.80% | -4.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Feb | 0.70% | -0.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Feb | 3.50% | 4.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Feb | 4.60% | 5.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Feb | 0.80% | -0.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Feb | 4.50% | 4.90% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input M/M Feb | 0.20% | -0.80% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Input Y/Y Feb | -2.70% | -3.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output M/M Feb | 0.10% | -0.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Output Y/Y Feb | -0.10% | -0.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output Y/Y Feb | -0.40% | | 07:00 | GBP | PPI Core Output M/M Feb | 0.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy Industrial Output M/M Jan | 0.10% | 1.10% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.9M | -1.5M | | 15:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar P | -15 | -16 | | 17:30 | CAD | BoC Summary of Deliberations | | 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.50% | 5.50% | | 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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