Yen Finds Some Relief from Inflation Data, But Struggles to Rebound

Action Insight Daily Report 3-28-25

Yen Finds Some Relief from Inflation Data, But Struggles to Rebound

The overall mood in the forex markets remains one of indecision, with major currencies largely range-bound. Yen is attempting a mild rebound after Tokyo's CPI figures came in stronger than expected, with core-core inflation rising to 2.2% yoy. However, the Japanese currency is still the worst performer of the week, reflecting the broader uncertainty over BoJ’s next move.

Domestically, the sharp surge in rice prices—up 92.4% yoy—will likely be dismissed by BoJ as a temporary shock stemming from supply issues. What will matter more for policy direction is whether the uptick in rents and service-sector inflation, driven by rising wages, proves to be more persistent.

At the same time, BoJ Summary of Opinions revealed a clear concern among board members over downside risks from US tariffs and global economic instability. Even though BoJ remains on a path toward further rate hikes, the timing of the next move is now more uncertain. The central bank may opt to delay any action to better assess the economic fallout from global trade policies.....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 150.35; (P) 150.75; (R1) 151.45; More...

No change in USD/JPY's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong resistance is still expected from 150.92 to complete the corrective recovery from 146.52. On the downside break of 149.53 support will bring retest of 146.52 first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support. However, firm break of 150.92 will argue that fall from 158.86 has completed and turn bias back to the upside for 154.79 resistance next.

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European Central Bank Easing to Slow as Eurozone Outlook Brightens
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Global FX: A Sudden and Decisive Change in Sentiment
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Mar 2.90% 2.90% 2.80%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.20% 2.20%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Mar 2.20% 1.90%
23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
07:00 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Apr -22.2 -24.7
07:00 GBP Retail Sales M/M Feb -0.30% 1.70%
07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -16.8B -17.4B
07:00 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 F 0.10% 0.10%
07:00 GBP Current Account (GBP) Q4 -16.7B -18.1B
08:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer Mar 102.6 101.7
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Feb 10K 5K
08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Feb 6.20% 6.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Mar 97 96.3
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar -10.5 -11.4
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Mar 6.8 6.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar F -14.5 -14.5
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Jan 0.30% 0.20%
12:30 USD Personal Income Feb 0.40% 0.90%
12:30 USD Personal Spending Feb 0.50% -0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.50% 2.50%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Feb 2.70% 2.60%
14:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Mar F 57.9 57.9