Nikkei Crashes as Auto Tariff Reality Hits, Yen and Gold Soar as âLiberation Dayâ Looms
| Action Insight Daily Report 3-31-25 |
Nikkei Crashes as Auto Tariff Reality Hits, Yen and Gold Soar as “Liberation Day” Looms |
Risk aversion erupted across Asian markets today, with Japan bearing the brunt of the selloff. Nikkei plummeted by nearly than -4%, marking its worst day in months and sending the index to its lowest level since September last year. The sharp move comes as traders scramble to reassess the impact of US President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on all automobile imports, which are set to take effect Thursday. Previously, there had been some hope that Japan, a long-standing US ally, might be spared. But with no signs of exemption, the market is now forcefully pricing in the worst-case scenario. Japanese Yen surged broadly on the wave of safe-haven buying, with investors rushing to unwind risk trades amid intensifying global trade tensions. The Yen's rally was amplified by the direct blow to Japan's key auto sector, a pillar of its export economy. The sharp shift in sentiment underscores how markets had underappreciated the possibility of Japan being caught in the crossfire of Trump's aggressive trade policy. The turbulence comes just days ahead of the so-called "Liberation Day" on Wednesday, when the US is expected to announce sweeping reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The threat of a global trade war escalation is now overtaking all other themes in the market, overshadowing this week’s otherwise significant calendar including the US ISM indexes, non-farm payrolls, Eurozone inflation, and RBA rate decision..... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.26; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.79; More... USD/JPY's break of 149.53 support suggests that corrective recovery has already completed at 151.20. That came just ahead of 151.29 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 146.52 at 151.23). Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 146.52 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 151.23/9 holds in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Feb P | 2.50% | 1.90% | -1.10% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Feb | 1.40% | 2.40% | 4.40% | | 00:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Mar | 57.5 | 58.4 | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Feb | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Mar | 50.5 | 50.5 | 50.2 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar | 50.8 | 50.5 | 50.4 | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Feb | 2.40% | -1.90% | -4.60% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M Feb | -0.10% | 1.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Feb | 0.00% | 0.20% | | 08:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Feb | 1.10% | 1.30% | | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Feb | 66K | 66K | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Mar P | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Mar P | 2.30% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Mar | 45.4 | 45.5 |
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