Euro Stays Strong, While Markets Stabilize on China’s Stimulus and Hopes for Trump’s Tariff Compromise

Action Insight Daily Report 3-5-25

Euro Stays Strong, While Markets Stabilize on China’s Stimulus and Hopes for Trump’s Tariff Compromise

Despite the steep selloff on Wall Street overnight, sentiment appears to have improved somewhat in Asia. Investors found reasons for optimism as China set a 2025 GDP growth target of around 5% and announced stimulus measures to counter escalating tensions with the U.S. In a notable shift, Beijing raised its budget deficit target to roughly 4% of GDP, marking the highest level since at least 2010. Stocks in Hong Kong led regional gains, reflecting hopes that China’s commitment to boosting domestic growth will help offset some global headwinds.

In the US, there is cautious optimism following remarks from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who revealed that President Donald Trump may unveil a compromise deal with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday. Such a pact could potentially scale back the recently enacted 25% tariffs. However, any progress on that front may be overshadowed by the looming threat of reciprocal tariffs, particularly on the EU, set to be announced in early April.

While US equity futures received a minor lift from Lutnick’s comments, investors remain wary that ongoing protectionist policies could still drive the economy toward recession. Upcoming US ISM services data will be a crucial test for investor confidence, as weak results could deepen economic concerns and overshadow any positive developments on trade negotiations....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0522; (P) 1.0575; (R1) 1.0679; More...

EUR/USD's current upside acceleration argues that bullish trend reversal is probably already underway. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 100% projection of 1.0176 to 1.0531 from 1.0358 at 1.0173. Decisive break there will solidify this bullish case and target 161.8% projection at 1.0932 next. On the downside, below 1.0527 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.60% 0.50% 0.30%
00:30 JPY Services PMI Feb F 53.7 53.1 53.1
01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI Feb 51.4 50.8 51
07:30 CHF CPI M/M Feb 0.50% -0.10%
07:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Feb 0.20% 0.40%
08:50 EUR France Services PMI Feb F 44.5 44.5
08:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Feb F 52.2 52.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Feb F 50.7 50.7
09:30 GBP Services PMI Feb F 51.1 51.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jan 0.30% 0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan 1.40% 0%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Feb 140K 183K
13:30 CAD Labor Productivity Q/Q Q4 0.30% -0.40%
14:45 USD Services PMI Feb F 49.7 49.7
15:00 USD ISM Services PMI Feb 53 52.8
15:00 USD Factory Orders M/M Jan 1.50% -0.90%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.6M -2.3M
19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book