Markets Stabilize Ahead of Tariff D-Day, Focus Turns to Eurozone CPI and ISM Manufacturing

Action Insight Daily Report 4-1-25

Markets Stabilize Ahead of Tariff D-Day, Focus Turns to Eurozone CPI and ISM Manufacturing

The global equity selloff appears to have passed its peak—at least for now. After days of heavy risk-off moves driven by fears surrounding the upcoming US reciprocal tariffs announcement on Wednesday, traders have taken a cautious step back into a wait-and-see mode. US indexes clawed back most of their earlier losses overnight, closing mixed. Asian markets followed with mild gains in early Tuesday trading.

Currency markets, meanwhile, are staying largely range-bound in Asian session. Despite the calm surface, risk aversion remains evident in the performance breakdown. Kiwi, Aussie, and Loonie are still the worst performers for the week so far. On the flip side, Yen and Dollar are leading the pack, followed by Euro. Sterling and Swiss Franc are holding middle ground.

A major focus for today will be Eurozone’s flash CPI data. Recent media reports have revealed that some ECB officials are warming up to the idea of pausing rate cuts at the upcoming meeting on April 17. Odds now stand at around 65% for another 25bps reduction. While the doves remain committed to further easing, many appear willing to skip a meeting if hawks insist on more time to assess evolving risks. Any upside surprise in today's inflation print would strengthen the hawkish camp and make a pause more likely.

US ISM Manufacturing Index will also draw much attention. After briefly returning to expansion territory for just two months, the index is expected to slip back into contraction. Beyond headline activity, the price component will be scrutinized, especially in light of the impending tariffs. Prices index has surged from around 50 to over 60 this year—further acceleration could signal inflationary pressures re-emerging on the supply side.....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4327; (P) 1.4361; (R1) 1.4424; More...

Intraday bias in in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 is still extending. On the upside, break of 1.4400 will argue that it's still in the second leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside fro 1.4541 resistance first, and then 100% projection of 1.4150 to 1.4541 from 1.4234 at 1.4625. On the downside, though, break of 1.42324 support will suggest that the third leg has already started for 1.4150 and below.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Feb 2.40% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 12 12 14
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q1 12 9 13
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 35 33 33
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 28 29 28
23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 3.10% 11.30%
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.4 48.3 48.3
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mar 51.2 50.5 50.8
03:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
04:30 AUD RBA Press Conference
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Feb 1.50% 1.30%
07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.5 49.6
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.9 48.9
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.7 48.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.7 48.7
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Mar 44.6 44.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 6.20% 6.20%
09:00 EUR CPI Y/Y Mar P 2.20% 2.30%
09:00 EUR CPI Core Y/Y Mar P 2.50% 2.60%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Mar 47.8
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Mar F 49.8 49.8
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar 49.9 50.3
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Mar 65 62.4
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Mar 47.6
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index Mar 48.6
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Feb 0.20% -0.20%