Aussie Rises on Risk Rebound; RBA Keeps May Decision Open-Ended
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-15-25 |
Aussie Rises on Risk Rebound; RBA Keeps May Decision Open-Ended |
Commodity currencies, including Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian Dollars, are trading broadly higher in today’s Asian session, buoyed by continued recovery in global stock markets. Sterling is also advancing alongside, supported by improving risk sentiment. Meanwhile, traditional safe havens like the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, are on the back, along with the greenback foot. Swiss Franc is particularly soft, pulling back after recent strong gains. Euro remains directionless in the middle of the pack, showing little inclination to break out against Dollar yet. In RBA's minutes policymakers explicitly citing China’s response as a pivotal factor shaping Australia’s economic outlook and, by extension, future rate decisions. Given that China remains the only major economy actively retaliating against US tariffs, the fallout from a protracted trade war could be particularly impactful for Australia. While some analysts read the RBA’s language as a signal that a rate cut may come as soon as May, the actual odds remain more evenly balanced than market consensus might suggest. Tomorrow’s Australian employment report could help clarify the picture, at least a little bit. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech is worth a read. It offered a structured view of the unfolding US tariff regime. Waller outlined two potential paths: one focused on reshoring manufacturing and reducing trade dependency—implying a prolonged period of elevated tariffs. The other, a route aimed at leveraging tariffs to negotiate lower trade barriers from other countries. The ultimate outcome hinges on the political objectives of the Trump administration. But in reality, the likely result may lie somewhere between those extremes.... |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6287; (P) 0.6315; (R1) 0.6355; More... AUD/USD's rally from 0.5913 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Firm break of 0.6407 resistance will pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548, even still as a corrective move. On the downside, below 0.6180 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:30 | AUD | RBA Meeting Minutes | | 06:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Mar | 18.7K | 30.3K | 44.2K | 16.5K | | 06:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Feb | 4.40% | 4.40% | 4.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Feb | 5.60% | 5.70% | 5.80% | 5.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Feb | 5.90% | 6.00% | 5.90% | 5.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Apr | 10.6 | 51.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Apr | -86 | -87.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Apr | 14.2 | 39.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb | 0.10% | 0.80% | | 12:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Y/Y Mar | 238K | 229K | | 12:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Feb | -0.20% | 1.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Mar | 0.70% | 1.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Mar | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Median Y/Y Mar | 2.90% | 2.90% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Mar | 2.90% | 2.90% | | 12:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Mar | 2.40% | 2.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Apr | -14.8 | -20 | | 12:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Mar | 0.10% | 0.40% |
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