Tense Silence Before Tariff Thunder, Liberation Day Looms
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-2-25 |
Tense Silence Before Tariff Thunder, Liberation Day Looms |
Asian markets traded cautiously today as investors await the long-anticipated reciprocal tariff announcement from the US, dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Donald Trump. Following the mixed close on Wall Street, risk sentiment remains fragile, with traders in clear wait-and-see mode. However, the rebound in commodity currencies overnight hints that some market participants are leaning toward a less aggressive scenario unfolding — a bet that could quickly unravel if reality disappoints. According to the White House, the tariff announcement is set to take place today, with Trump scheduled to speak at 4 p.m. ET in the Rose Garden. Rumors continue to swirl over the exact details, but there is increasing chatter that the US may impose a blanket 20% tariff on most imports, lower than a strict “reciprocal” application would suggest. That level, while significant, may be seen as a relief to markets bracing for worse. Further, reports indicate that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has characterized the tariffs as a “cap,” suggesting that countries could negotiate lower rates if they meet US trade demands. This strategy, if confirmed, would effectively introduce a variable rate tariff regime that could evolve through bilateral talks. However, this overlooks a major wildcard: retaliatory measures from major US trading partners, such as Canada, the EU, and potentially China, which could unleash a spiral of escalation in the weeks ahead. In any case, volatility could spike over the next 24 hours as traders digest the final scope and tone of the announcement..... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4264; (P) 1.4339; (R1) 1.4380; More... USD/CAD reversed after edging higher to 1.4414, but stays in established range. intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.4791 is still extending. On the upside, break of 1.4414 will argue that it's still in the second leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside fro 1.4541 resistance first, and then 100% projection of 1.4150 to 1.4541 from 1.4234 at 1.4625. On the downside, though, break of 1.42324 support will suggest that the third leg has already started for 1.4150 and below. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Feb | 0.70% | 2.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Monetary Base Y/Y Mar | -3.10% | -1.50% | -1.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Feb | -0.30% | -1.40% | 6.30% | 6.90% | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Mar | 120K | 77K | | 14:00 | USD | Factory Orders M/M Feb | 0.50% | 1.70% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.4M | -3.3M |
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