Yen's Free Fall Resumes Post-BoJ; Dollar Eyes PCE Inflation Data for Rescue
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-26-24 |
Yen's Free Fall Resumes Post-BoJ; Dollar Eyes PCE Inflation Data for Rescue |
Japanese Yen resumes its free fall today, after a brief pause, and reaches new 34-year low against Dollar. Yen's weakness is also broad-based and evident against other major currencies, with EUR/JPY marching towards its 2008 high and GBP/JPY heading to its 2015 peak. It's clear that the absence of strong verbal interventions from Japanese officials has emboldened Yen bears. At the same time, BoJ's announcements failed to introduce any hawkish shifts that might have supported the currency. BoJ's updates included revised projections that see core-core inflation increasing to 2.1% by fiscal 2026, a development that BoJ views as a positive for inflation outlook. Meanwhile, there were substantial revisions in growth (downgraded) and inflation (upgraded) forecasts for fiscal 2024. Earlier data showed significant drop in Tokyo's inflation rates due to a one-off factor. But these are not the main drivers for Yen's decline... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.32; (P) 155.53; (R1) 155.87; More... USD/JPY's fall continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. On the downside, below 155.30 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 153.58 support holds, in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Apr | -19 | -20 | -21 | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y Apr | 1.80% | 2.60% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Apr | 1.60% | 2.20% | 2.40% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy Y/Y Apr | 1.80% | 2.90% | | 01:30 | AUD | Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 | -1.80% | 0.10% | 1.10% | | 01:30 | AUD | PPI Q/Q Q1 | 0.90% | 0.90% | | 01:30 | AUD | PPI Y/Y Q1 | 4.30% | 4.10% | | 03:22 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Mar | 0.50% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Mar | 0.50% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending Mar | 0.30% | 0.80% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Mar | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar | 2.60% | 2.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Mar | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Mar | 2.60% | 2.80% | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Apr F | 77.9 | 77.9 |
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