Global Market Rout Deepens Ahead of US Jobs Data
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-4-25 |
Global Market Rout Deepens Ahead of US Jobs Data |
There’s no relief in sight for the markets as risk aversion extends into Friday’s Asian session. Japan’s Nikkei is leading the losses once again, falling over -3% and cementing a near 10% weekly drop — the worst performance since early 2020. Singapore’s Strait Times Index has finally caught up with the global rout, slumping nearly -3% as traders there digest the full extent of the tariff-driven global selloff. Meanwhile, Hong Kong and China markets are taking a breather, closed for the Ching Ming Festival holiday. But the pause might only delay—not prevent—the contagion, as sentiment across asset continues to sour. US futures point to more pain ahead, with DOW at risk of closing below the psychological 40k psychological level this week. Markets appear unconvinced that a bottom is in sight, especially with geopolitical uncertainty and trade war escalation clouding the outlook. One of the clearest signs of deepening concern is the move in US Treasury yields. 10-year yield has broken below the critical 4% psychological support during Asian session, for the first time in six months. A weekly close below 4% could mark a seismic shift in sentiment, likely reinforcing safe-haven flows and risk aversion even further. Today’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report is the marquee event, but its interpretation is unlikely to offer a clear rescue narrative. A strong report won’t necessarily be bullish, as markets are more focused on looming global trade frictions than short-term economic strength. Conversely, a weak NFP print might push Fed rate cut expectations higher, but would also reinforce fears that the economy is already sliding into a downturn. In short, there’s little in this data that could provide comfort in the current climate..... |
USD/CHF Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8483; (P) 0.8658; (R1) 0.8769; More… USD/CHF's steep decline is still in progress and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9196 to 0.8757 from 0.8854 at 0.8415. On upside, above 0.8617 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recover should be limited below 0.8757 support turned resistance to bring another fall. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Overall Household Spending Y/Y Feb | -0.50% | -0.70% | 0.80% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Factory Orders M/M Feb | 3.30% | -7.00% | | 06:45 | EUR | France Industrial Output M/M Feb | 0.50% | -0.60% | | 08:30 | GBP | Construction PMI Mar | 46.7 | 44.6 | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Mar | 128K | 151K | | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Mar | 4.10% | 4.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Mar | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | Net Change in Employment Mar | 10.4K | 1.1K | | 12:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate Mar | 6.70% | 6.60% |
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