Yen Rises on Declining Benchmark Yields, Focus Turns to Canadian Job Data
| Action Insight Daily Report 4-6-23 |
Yen Rises on Declining Benchmark Yields, Focus Turns to Canadian Job Data |
Yen is extending this week's rebound in Asian session, with help from extended decline in US and European benchmark yields. Investors were showing signs of worries of a sharper slowdown in US economy after much weaker than expected economic data. Dollar is recovering on mild risk aversion too, but remains the worst performer of the week. The US markets will be keenly awaiting tomorrow's non-farm payroll data to adjust their forecasts on the economy, Fed's rate path, and next moves in the markets. But for today, Canadian employment data will be a focus first. The lift from oil prices this week has so far faded, with WTI crude oil still struggling around 80 handle. As for BoC monetary policies, there is little reason for a piece of data to take the central out of the pause in tightening. Nevertheless, there are still speculations of at least one more hike by BoC this year, which will be heavily data-dependent. AUD/CAD would be a pair to watch today. Aussie is among the worst performer for the week after RBA's rate pause. Strong job data from Canada could push AUD/CAD through 0.8984 support. The down trend from 0.9545 would then resume and target 61.8% projection of 0.9545 to 0.9043 from 0.9229 at 0.8919. Overall, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9127 resistance holds, in case of a rebound. In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.35%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.38%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.01%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.66%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0053 at 0.464. Overnight, DOW rose 0.24%. S&P 500 dropped -0.25%. NASDAQ dropped -1.07%. 10-year yield dropped -0.050 to 3.287. |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.70; (P) 131.27; (R1) 131.91; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside for 129.62 support. Break there will resume the whole decline form1 37.90 to retest 127.20 low. On the upside, however, above 133.74 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for another rise. Overall, eventual downside break out is expected as long as 137.90 resistance holds. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Feb | 13.87B | 11.12B | 11.69B | 11.27B | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI Mar | 57.8 | 55 | 55 | | 05:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate Mar | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.90% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production Feb | -0.40% | 3.50% | | 07:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Mar | 771B | | 08:30 | GBP | Construction PMI Mar | 53.6 | 54.6 | | 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts Mar | 410.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 31) | 200K | 198K | | 12:30 | CAD | Net Change in Employment Mar | 10.2K | 21.8K | | 12:30 | CAD | Unemployment Rate Mar | 5.10% | 5.00% | | 14:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Mar | 52 | 51.6 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -20B | -47B |
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