Yen Slides as BoJ Slashes Growth Outlook; Investor Resilience Faces ISM Test

Action Insight Daily Report 5-1-25

Yen Slides as BoJ Slashes Growth Outlook; Investor Resilience Faces ISM Test

Yen weakened broadly today following the BoJ’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, while significantly downgrading its growth projections for the current fiscal year. Inflation outlook was also softened, with risks of undershooting the 2% target increased, albeit slightly.

This backdrop suggests that while BoJ remains on a slow tightening path, policymakers may take a more cautious approach in the near term. The prospect of a rate hike in June now appears less likely unless global trade negotiations between the US and its partners make meaningful progress.

Elsewhere, Wall Street showed surprising resilience overnight. After initially tumbling on the back of an unexpected Q1 contraction in US GDP, DOW and S&P 500 managed to close in positive territory, while NASDAQ was little changed. Fed rate expectations were also little changed, with markets still pricing in a 97% chance of a hold in May and a 66% chance of a rate cut in June.

Investor sentiment, while shaken, has not broken—at least not yet. Attention now shifts to the upcoming ISM manufacturing survey today and tomorrow’s US non-farm payroll report....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.42; (P) 142.81; (R1) 143.45; More...

USD/JPY's rebound from 139.87 short term bottom resumed by breaking through 144.02 today. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 100% projection of 139.87 to 144.02 from 141.96 at 146.11. But still, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12 holds. On the downside, firm break of 141.96 will argue that the rebound has completed as a corrective move. Retest of 139.87 should then be seen next in this case.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Apr F 48.7 48.5 48.5
01:30 AUD Import Price Index Q/Q Q1 3.30% 0.30% 0.20%
01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Mar 6.90B 3.10B 2.97B 2.85B
03:03 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Apr 31.2 34 34.1
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Mar 1.90% 1.60%
08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Mar 0.20% 0.20%
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Mar 65K 65K
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Apr F 44 44
11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Apr 204.80%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25) 221K 222K
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Apr 46.3
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Apr F 50.7 50.7
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Apr 47.9 49
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Apr 70.2 69.4
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Apr 44.7
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Mar 0.30% 0.70%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 111B 88B