Fed Cut Bets Recede Ahead of US CPI, Dollar Approaches Key Resistance
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-13-25 |
Fed Cut Bets Recede Ahead of US CPI, Dollar Approaches Key Resistance |
Global equity markets surged overnight in response to the breakthrough US-China tariff truce, with risk appetite roaring back across the board. DOW jumped more than 1100 points, while S&P 500 and NASDAQ surged 3.26% and 4.35%, respectively. The relief rally extended into Europe, where Germany’s DAX surged to a new record high, reflecting broad optimism that trade tensions have eased significantly—at least for now. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped nearly 1.8% in early trading as it played catch-up, though the boost faded in Hong Kong where HSI turned lower, signaling some regional caution. In the currency markets, however, the initial momentum has slowed. Dollar remains the strongest currency for the week so far, supported by rising Treasury yields and expectations that Fed will maintain its high interest rate longer. Commodity currencies like the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars are also holding firm, buoyed by improved risk sentiment. Meanwhile, Yen and European majors continue to lag. The attention now shifts to today’s US April CPI release, which will be the first major inflation print since the April tariff escalation and the subsequent truce. Although the immediate impact of tariffs may not be fully visible yet, any upside surprise could reinforce Fed’s message of caution. While that may further support Dollar, it’s unlikely to significantly dampen the broader risk-on mood, given that markets have already recalibrated expectations following the trade deal.... |
USD/CHF Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8367; (P) 0.8421; (R1) 0.8512; More…. USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8038 is still seen as a corrective move. Strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482 to limit upside. Break of 0.8330 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias will turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8184 will bring retest of 0.8038 low. However, sustained trading above 0.8482 will dampen this bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8756 next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Summary of Opinions | | 23:50 | JPY | Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Apr | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence May | 2.20% | -6% | | 01:30 | AUD | NAB Business Conditions Apr | 2 | 4 | | 01:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Apr | -1 | -3 | | 06:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Apr | 22.3K | 18.7K | | 06:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar | 4.50% | 4.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Mar | 5.20% | 5.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Mar | 5.70% | 5.90% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment May | 9.8 | -14 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation May | -77 | -81.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May | -4.4 | -18.5 | | 10:00 | USD | NFIB Business Optimism Index Apr | 94.5 | 97.4 | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M Apr | 0.30% | -0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Apr | 2.40% | 2.40% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Apr | 2.80% | 2.80% |
|
|
|
