Cautious Trade as APEC Cuts Growth View, Key UK and US Releases Awaited
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-15-25 |
Cautious Trade as APEC Cuts Growth View, Key UK and US Releases Awaited |
Activity in the global stock markets remained relatively subdued, with US posting a mixed close overnight and Asian markets slipping modestly lower today. Despite China’s 50bps Reserve Requirement Ratio cut taking effect, expected to inject over USD 138B into the banking system, investor reaction has been muted. The cautious tone reflects lingering concerns over the global trade outlook, which continues to overshadow stimulus measures and upbeat economic data. Trade-related uncertainty remains a key drag on sentiment, with APEC group issuing a stark warning about the deteriorating outlook. At its 2025 trade ministers meeting in South Korea, APEC projected regional exports to grow by just 0.4% this year, sharply down from 5.7% in 2024. The group also downgraded its regional economic growth forecast to 2.6%, from 3.3% previously, citing weakening external demand, particularly in manufacturing and consumer goods, as well as rising policy uncertainty across trade and services sectors. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc are the strongest performer today so far, benefiting from mild pullback in risk-on sentiment and likely some short covering after recent weakness. Aussie is gaining ground as well, lifted by a stronger-than-expected employment report, which suggests that while the Reserve Bank of Australia is still on track for a rate cut next week, a more aggressive easing path may be off the table for now. Conversely, Dollar is the weakest major today, although the downside lacks conviction so far. Loonie and Kiwi are also under some mild pressure. Euro and Pound are holding steady, awaiting further catalysts, with the UK GDP report due in the European session. ..... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3928; (P) 1.3957; (R1) 1.4012; More... Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor with 1.3898 minor support intact. Above 1.4014 will resume the rebound from 1.3749 to 1.4150 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3749 at 1.4147). However, break of 1.3898 minor support will indicate that the rebound has completed, and bring retest of 1.3749. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations May | 4.10% | 4.20% | | 01:30 | AUD | Employment Change Apr | 89K | 20.9K | 32.2K | 36.4K | | 01:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Apr | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.10% | | 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr | 11.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.60% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Mar | 0.00% | 0.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Mar | -0.60% | 1.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Mar | -0.90% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Mar | -0.80% | 2.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar | -0.50% | 0.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Mar | -19.7B | -20.8B | | 06:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 06:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Apr | -0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q1 P | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar | 1.70% | 1.10% | | 12:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Apr | 234K | 214K | | 12:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Mar | -1.90% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Mar | -0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (May 9) | 230K | 228K | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.10% | 1.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI M/M Apr | 0.20% | -0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Apr | 2.50% | 2.70% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Apr | 0.30% | -0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Apr | 3.10% | 3.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing May | -7.1 | -8.1 | | 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Survey May | -8.5 | -26.4 | | 13:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Apr | 0.10% | -0.30% | | 13:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Apr | 77.80% | 77.80% | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories Mar | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index May | 41 | 40 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 111B | 104B |
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