Markets Lifted by US-China Trade Thaw Hopes, But All Eyes on US Jobs Report

Action Insight Daily Report 5-2-25

Markets Lifted by US-China Trade Thaw Hopes, But All Eyes on US Jobs Report

Markets trade on a cautiously optimistic in Asian session, supported by fresh signs that US-China trade tensions may be starting to thaw. China's Commerce Ministry said the US has repeatedly expressed interest in reopening negotiations, adding that Beijing is "evaluating" these overtures. This marks the most constructive public tone from Beijing since the US enacted sweeping tariffs in April, raising hopes that some form of de-escalation could follow.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House adviser Kevin Hassett both echoed this optimism. Hassett told CNBC there have been informal discussions across both governments, and China’s recent move to ease duties on select US goods was interpreted as a possible opening gesture.

Despite the improving geopolitical mood, FX markets remain directionless outside of continued weakness in Yen following BoJ’s dovish posture and downgraded growth forecasts. Kiwi and Euro are also under mild pressure, while commodity currencies like the Aussie and Loonie are faring better, alongside Sterling. Dollar and Swiss Franc are mixed in the middle. This price action hints at budding risk-on sentiment, but conviction is still lacking ahead of today’s key US jobs report....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3804; (P) 1.3834; (R1) 1.3883; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral again with current recovery. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.3903 resistance holds. Below 1.3768 temporary low will resume the decline from 1.4791 to 1.3727 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.3903 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.4086).

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Mar 9.60% 0.70% 0.80%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Apr -4.80% -2.00% -3.10%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Mar 2.50% 2.40% 2.40%
01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.30% 0.40% 0.20% 0.80%
01:30 AUD PPI Q/Q Q1 0.90% 0.80% 0.80%
01:30 AUD PPI Y/Y Q1 3.70% 3.70%
07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Apr 48.7 48.9
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Apr F 48.2 48.2
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Apr F 48 48
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Apr F 48.7 48.7
08:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 6.10% 6.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Apr P 2.10% 2.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Apr P 2.50% 2.40%
12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Apr 130K 228K
12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours Apr 34.2 34.2
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Apr 4.20% 4.20%
12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Apr 0.30% 0.30%
14:00 USD Factory Orders M/M Mar 4.20% 0.60%