Dollar Selloff Accelerates on Fiscal, Trade, and FX Policy Risks
| Action Insight Daily Daily 5-21-25 |
Dollar Selloff Accelerates on Fiscal, Trade, and FX Policy Risks |
Dollar came under broad selling pressure in Asian session, with fresh technical signals suggesting that the near-term recovery has already run its course. Also, the selloff appears to be gathering pace on a range of fundamental concerns. One focus is on Capitol Hill, where the House of Representatives is expected to vote on a multitrillion-dollar spending and tax package backed by US President Donald Trump. The bill is projected by nonpartisan analysts to add US 3 to 5 Trillion to the national debt, further exacerbating fiscal sustainability concerns in the wake of the Moody’s downgrade last Friday. Simultaneously, ongoing trade negotiations with major partners — including the EU, Japan, and China — have hit apparent roadblocks, reintroducing geopolitical friction into already cautious markets. Adding to Dollar’s vulnerability is the backdrop of the G7 finance ministers’ meeting underway in Canada. With concerns that US officials may be quietly welcoming a weaker Dollar to cushion trade headwinds and debt concerns, any perceived shift in post-meeting communiqué could further undermine confidence in the greenback.... |
USD/CHF Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8256; (P) 0.8309; (R1) 0.8337; More…. USD/CHF's downside accelerations suggests that corrective recovery from 0.8038 has already completed with three waves up to 0.8475. Intraday bias is back on the downside, and break of 0.8184 support will solidify this bearish case. Further break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757 next. On the upside, above 0.8347 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral again first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) Apr | 1426M | 500M | 970M | 794M | | 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Apr | -0.41T | -0.19T | -0.23T | -0.29T | | 01:00 | AUD | Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr | -0.01% | -0.11% | -0.15% | | 06:00 | GBP | CPI M/M Apr | 1.10% | 0.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | CPI Y/Y Apr | 3.30% | 2.60% | | 06:00 | GBP | Core CPI Y/Y Apr | ` | 3.60% | 3.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI M/M Apr | 1.50% | 0.30% | | 06:00 | GBP | RPI Y/Y Apr | 4.20% | 3.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.9M | 3.5M |
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