Dollar Gains Momentum as Fed Hike Re-Enters Markets Pricing, Despite Ultra Low Odds
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-24-24 |
Dollar Gains Momentum as Fed Hike Re-Enters Markets Pricing, Despite Ultra Low Odds |
Dollar's rebound is gathering momentum, as fueled by yesterday's data indicating a resurgence in the services sector, which could impede disinflation progress. While fed fund futures still reflect over 50% probability of a rate cut in September, there is now a 0.6% chance of a rate hike—an occurrence not seen for quite some time. Currently, the Dollar is the week's strongest performer, with the upcoming durable goods orders report likely to influence its next move. Sterling follows as the second strongest currency this week, supported by higher-than-expected inflation data, which quashed hopes for a June rate cut by BoE. The focus now shifts to the upcoming UK retail sales data for further direction. Euro is also performing well as the third strongest, bolstered by strong Eurozone PMI data. In contrast, Australian Dollar is the worst performer this week, dragged down by pullback in global risk sentiment. Yen is the second weakest, followed by New Zealand Dollar. Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar are positioned in the middle... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3676; (P) 1.3710; (R1) 1.3763; More... USD/CAD's rebound from 1.3589 extended higher today. The development indicates that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3589. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3761 resistance first. Break there will bring retest of 1.3845 high. On the downside, below 1.3655 minor support will dampen this bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral again first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) Apr | 91M | -202M | 588M | 476M | | 23:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence May | -17 | -18 | -19 | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y Apr | 2.50% | 2.70% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Apr | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.60% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI ex Food & Energy Y/Y Apr | 2.40% | 2.90% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Apr | -0.60% | 0.00% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q1 F | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Mar | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Mar | -0.20% | -0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Apr | 0.50% | 2.60% | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Apr | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment May | 67.4 | 67.4 |
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